永安期货农产品早报-20251010

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - Corn: In the short - term, new - season corn is about to be listed, leading to weakened demand for old corn and a weak price trend. With low inventory levels, the decline is expected to be limited. In the long - term, prices are likely to be under pressure due to increased production and lower costs, and may turn around when consumption improves or farmers show reluctance to sell [2]. - Starch: In the short - term, as the cost of purchasing corn decreases, the price of starch is expected to be lowered to reduce inventory. In the long - term, high inventory and lower expected raw material costs keep the outlook for starch prices bearish [2]. - Sugar: Internationally, the peak crushing season in Brazil is pressuring sugar prices. Domestically, with imported sugar arriving and processing sugar prices dropping, the market faces upward pressure [3]. - Cotton: The market has entered a consolidation phase, waiting for demand verification. Without major macro - risks, the April low could be the long - term bottom, and the downside space is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [5]. - Eggs: In September, due to increased demand from school openings and holiday stocking, and traders' "buying on the upswing" mentality, the spot price rebounded nearly 40%. High inventory and cold - stored eggs limit price increases, but the price is unlikely to fall below the feed cost. Post - holiday chicken culling should be monitored [9]. - Apples: The new - season apples are being bag - removed. The national production is expected to be similar to last year, but consumption is in the off - season, and the market share is being squeezed by seasonal fruits. The final production should be watched [11]. - Pigs: There are policy - related expectations of a production capacity inflection point next year. However, insufficient capacity reduction still suppresses the medium - term supply. The near - term supply pressure is being released, and the spot price is hitting new lows. Attention should be paid to factors such as the slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [15]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - Price Data: From 2025/09/25 to 2025/10/09, prices in major regions decreased, e.g., the price in Changchun dropped by 120, and the price in Weifang decreased by 114. The trade profit increased by 30, while the import profit decreased by 16 [1]. - Analysis: Short - term price is weak due to reduced demand, and long - term price is pressured by increased production and lower costs. Starch price is expected to decline in the short - term and remain bearish in the long - term [2]. Sugar - Price Data: From 2025/09/25 to 2025/10/09, the spot price in Liuzhou decreased by 20, and the import profit from Thailand and Brazil decreased by 72 and 73 respectively [3]. - Analysis: International supply pressure and domestic imported sugar arrivals are pressuring the sugar price [3]. Cotton - Price Data: From 2025/09/25 to 2025/10/09, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 45, and the import profit decreased by 62 [5]. - Analysis: The market is in a consolidation phase, and the downside space is limited if there are no major macro - risks [5]. Eggs - Price Data: From 2025/09/25 to 2025/10/09, prices in major production areas decreased, e.g., the price in Hebei decreased by 0.40, and the price in Shandong decreased by 0.70. The prices of substitutes such as yellow - feather broilers decreased by 0.35, and the price of pigs decreased by 0.67 [9]. - Analysis: The price rebounded in September, but high inventory and cold - stored eggs limit price increases [9]. Apples - Price Data: From 2025/09/25 to 2025/10/09, the spot price remained unchanged at 7500.00, and the national inventory decreased by 16.00 [10][11]. - Analysis: The new - season production is expected to be similar to last year, and consumption is in the off - season [11]. Pigs - Price Data: From 2025/09/25 to 2025/10/09, prices in major production areas decreased, e.g., the price in Henan Kaifeng decreased by 1.15, and the price in Hubei Xiangyang decreased by 1.05. The basis decreased by 390.00 [15]. - Analysis: There are policy expectations for next year, but medium - term supply pressure remains, and the near - term supply is being released [15].