燃料油早报-20251010

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the cracking spread of Singapore 380cst high - sulfur fuel oil oscillated, the near - month spread oscillated, the basis strengthened slightly, the EW spread rebounded again and fluctuated widely recently, and the domestic and foreign spreads of FU near - month oscillated. The low - sulfur cracking spread rebounded slightly but was still at a historical low compared to the same period. The monthly spread was weakly sorted out, the domestic and foreign spreads of LU rebounded slightly to $8 - 9 per ton, and the MF0.5 basis oscillated [5]. - Fundamentally, Singapore's residue decreased, floating storage oscillated, ARA's residue inventory decreased slightly, EIA's residue decreased slightly, Fujairah's inventory decreased, and the high - sulfur floating storage in the Middle East increased significantly. The high - sulfur peak season in the Middle East has passed. With the reshaping of logistics and the support of Singapore's high - sulfur marine fuel demand, the EW spread has completed its repair. Recently, the refinery's raw material procurement supports the 380 cracking level, and the short - term downward space is limited. It is expected that the 380 cracking spread will maintain an oscillating pattern, and the domestic FU is expected to oscillate with a slightly bullish trend in the short term. This week, the LU futures remained weak. The issuance of the third batch of export quotas met expectations, and the external MF0.5 basis oscillated at a low level. In the fourth quarter, the domestic and foreign spreads of LU can be expanded when the price is low. Pay attention to the quota usage [6]. 3. Summary by Directory - Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data: From September 25, 2025, to October 9, 2025, the prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSFO swap M1 decreased by $5.39, Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO swap M1 decreased by $6.35, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 decreased by $0.08, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 decreased by $19.12, Rotterdam VLSFO - GO M1 increased by $12.77, LGO - Brent M1 decreased by $0.88, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 decreased by $0.96 [3]. - Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data: During the same period, the prices of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased by $7.73, Singapore 180cst M1 decreased by $9.31, Singapore VLSFO M1 decreased by $7.87, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 decreased by $0.64, and Singapore VLSFO - GO M1 increased by $0.57 [3]. - Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data: From September 25, 2025, to October 9, 2025, the FOB 380cst price decreased by $6.99, the FOB VLSFO price decreased by $11.25, and the 380 basis decreased by $0.49 [4]. - Domestic FU Data: During this period, the prices of FU 01 decreased by 33, FU 05 decreased by 27, FU 09 decreased by 15, FU 01 - 05 decreased by 6, FU 05 - 09 decreased by 12, and FU 09 - 01 increased by 18 [4]. - Domestic LU Data: From September 25, 2025, to October 9, 2025, the prices of LU 01 decreased by 58, LU 05 decreased by 64, LU 09 decreased by 48, LU 01 - 05 increased by 6, LU 05 - 09 decreased by 16, and LU 09 - 01 increased by 10 [5].