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LPG早报-20251010
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-10-10 01:06

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the next three months, the supply side is expected to fluctuate slightly, combustion demand will steadily recover, and PDH plants may maintain high operation rates. However, with the expected increase in OPEC+ production, international propane prices are under pressure, and domestic refinery gas also faces significant pressure, so the overall LPG price is likely to fall rather than rise. Attention should be paid to PDH plant maintenance, OPEC+ policies, and geopolitical changes [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data - On September 29, 2025, compared with the previous day, the price of East China LPG increased by 17 yuan to 4380 yuan, Shandong decreased by 120 yuan to 4430 yuan, and South China decreased by 40 yuan to 4600 yuan. The price of etherified C4 increased by 70 yuan to 4620 yuan. The lowest delivery location was East China, with the basis increasing by 18 to 308 [1] Weekly Viewpoints - In the external market, Middle - East supplies are in tight balance, US inventories are at a historical high with high - load exports. The procurement needs of Japanese and Korean chemical industries, Chinese PDH plants, and Indian peak - season stockpiling support prices, but the warm - winter expectation may suppress Japanese and Korean restocking. The shipping freight from the US to the Far East has dropped significantly, and the arbitrage window is closed. Domestically, upstream inventory reduction and downstream restocking occurred simultaneously before the holiday, resulting in small price fluctuations [1] - The profit of PDH plants has improved (up about 200 yuan month - on - month) due to the decline in raw material arrival prices. Etherified C4 is not actively purchased due to weak terminal gasoline demand and poor plant profits. The expected increase in OPEC+ production puts pressure on international propane prices, and domestic refinery gas also has significant pressure, so the overall LPG price is expected to have limited upside [1]