大越期货油脂早报-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. Affected by Argentina's tariff policy, the supply of beans and oils has increased, leading to an overall adjustment in the prices of oilseeds and oils. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports the increase in biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of Sino - US and Sino - Canadian relations affects the market at the macro - level. [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View of Different Oils 3.1.1 Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that in August, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,512, with a basis of 179, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [2] - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a 11.7% increase year - on - year. [2] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,500. [2] 3.1.2 Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9,598, with a basis of - 28, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. [3] - Inventory: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 34.1% decrease year - on - year. [3] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased. [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,350 - 9,750. [3] 3.1.3 Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to the above two oils, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,386, with a basis of 138, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [4] - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 3.2% increase year - on - year. [4] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased. [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,000 - 10,400. [4] 3.2 Recent利多利空Analysis - Positive Factors: The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil. [5] - Negative Factors: The prices of edible oils are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic edible oil inventory has been continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high. [5] - Main Logic: The global edible oil fundamentals are relatively loose. [5]