PTA、MEG早报-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the post - holiday spot market negotiation atmosphere is average, with spot basis fluctuating. Due to some PTA device maintenance and production reduction, along with the delay of new device commissioning, the PTA supply - demand outlook improves. It is expected that the short - term spot price will mainly fluctuate following the cost side. Attention should be paid to downstream production and sales and device changes [5]. - For MEG, the main port arrivals this week are still high, and it is expected that the port inventory will continue to rise early next week. In October, the MEG supply - demand pattern turns to inventory accumulation, with an overall accumulation of about 50,000 tons, and there is continuous inventory accumulation pressure in the far - month. The market sentiment is under significant pressure. It is expected that the MEG market will operate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to external factors and device changes [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant content provided 3.2 Daily Tips - PTA: Yesterday, PTA futures rebounded after a decline. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, with weak spot basis. Trades were mainly among traders, and some polyester factories made bids. This week and next week's goods were traded at a discount of 58 - 65 to the 01 contract, with the price negotiation range around 4,470 - 4,530. Goods at the end of October were traded at a discount of 60 to the 01 contract, and some were slightly lower. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 63. The spot price is 4,500, the basis of the 01 contract is - 84, and the futures price is at a premium. The PTA factory inventory is 4.22 days, a decrease of 0.47 days compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net position of the main contract is short, and short positions are increasing [5][6]. - MEG: On Thursday, the price center of ethylene glycol declined, and the market negotiation was acceptable. After the holiday, the ethylene glycol port inventory increased significantly to over 500,000 tons, and there are still plans for large ships to arrive this week. The ethylene glycol futures price weakened significantly, with spot prices at low levels trading around 4,180 - 4,185 yuan/ton. In the afternoon, the futures price recovered moderately, and the spot price rebounded slightly. In the US dollar market, the center of the ethylene glycol external market weakened. Near noon, recent shipments were traded around 490 - 493 US dollars/ton. In the afternoon, the futures price rebounded slightly, and the negotiation center of shipments rose to around 495 - 498 US dollars/ton. The trading volume in the market was weak. The spot price is 4,214, the basis of the 01 contract is 56, and the futures price is at a discount. The total inventory in the East China region is 445,100 tons, an increase of 40,800 tons compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The main contract has a net short position, and short positions are decreasing [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Likely Positive Factors: Before the holiday, driven by the recovery of demand and the rebound of oil prices, the polyester market sales were booming. The equity inventory of POY and FDY in the pre - spinning of filament yarns quickly decreased to about half a month, and the prices rebounded by 100 - 150 yuan. During the holiday, the polyester prices were stable, and the filament yarn production and sales were only 10% - 20%. It is estimated that the average inventory accumulation in 8 days will exceed 5 days. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton device is shut down for maintenance and is expected to restart in November [8][9]. - Likely Negative Factors: Currently, the short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and for the futures price rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory data from January 2024 to December 2025, including year - on - year changes and supply - demand gaps [11]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, port inventory, and supply - demand difference data from January 2024 to December 2025, including year - on - year changes [12]. - Price Data: It includes the spot price of bottle chips, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, PTA basis, MEG inter - month spread, basis, spot spread, and other price - related data from 2020 to 2025 [14][17][21][22][24][28][31][35][38]. - Inventory Analysis: It shows the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and polyester fiber in different regions and time periods from 2020 to 2025 [40][42][45][46][49][50]. - Polyester Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: It includes the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [51][55]. - Profit Data: It presents the production profit data of PTA, MEG, polyester fiber short - fiber, and polyester fiber long - filament from 2022 to 2025 [60][61][64][65]