Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Report date: October 10, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 3: Core View - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level, with enterprise inventories accumulating. Both industrial and agricultural demand are weak, and the domestic urea market is still in a situation of significant oversupply. Although the international urea price is strong, it has limited support for the domestic price. It is expected that the urea main contract will fluctuate today [4]. Group 4: Urea Overview Positive Factors - International prices are strong [5] Negative Factors - High daily production at high operating rates [5] - Weak domestic demand [5] Main Logic - International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5] Analysis of Each Indicator - Fundamentals: Current daily production and operating rates are slightly down but still high, with enterprise inventories accumulating in many provinces. Both industrial and agricultural demand are weak, and the third batch of export quotas has limited support for domestic prices. The overall domestic urea supply exceeds demand, and the spot price of the delivery product is 1700 (-40), with a generally bearish fundamental outlook [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 91, with a premium - discount ratio of 5.4%, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.686 million tons (+161,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The net long position of the UR main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4]. - Expectation: The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate. International urea prices are strong but have limited support for domestic prices. With weak industrial and agricultural demand and significant domestic oversupply, the UR is expected to fluctuate today [4]. Group 5: Market Data Spot and Futures Market | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1700 | - 20 | 01 Contract | 1609 | - 61 | | Shandong Spot | 1700 | - 20 | Basis | 91 | 41 | | Henan Spot | 1720 | 0 | UR01 | 1609 | - 61 | | FOB China | 3097 | | UR05 | 1677 | - 40 | | | | | UR09 | 1701 | - 41 | [6] Inventory Data | Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Warehouse Receipt | 7017 | - 152 | | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 1.686 million tons | + 161,000 tons | | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 1.086 million tons | | | UR Port Inventory | 600,000 tons | | [6] Group 6: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]
大越期货尿素早报-20251010
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-10-10 01:19