大越期货纯碱早报-20251010

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of soda ash is weak, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily View - The maintenance volume of soda ash plants is lower than expected, and the second - phase of Yuangxing is expected to be put into production before the end of the year. The overall supply is at a high level. The supply of downstream float glass is subject to many disturbances, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the terminal demand is average. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level for the same period. The basis shows that the futures price is higher than the spot price. The inventory is above the 5 - year average, the price is below the 20 - day line which is downward, the main position is net short with a reduction in short positions. All these factors are bearish [3]. 2. Influencing Factors Summary - Likely to rise: During the peak maintenance period this year, the production is expected to decline [4]. - Likely to fall: The main logic is that the supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level for the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved. The risk points are that the cold - repair of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is lower than expected, and the macro - level benefits exceed expectations [5]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1250 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe is 1165 yuan/ton, and the main basis is - 85 yuan. The closing price of the main contract has decreased by 0.40%, and the low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe has decreased by 0.43% [7]. 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1165 yuan/ton, which has decreased by 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [14]. 5. Production Profit of Soda Ash - The profit of the North China ammonia - soda process for heavy - quality soda ash is - 97.20 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process is - 115.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historically low level [17]. 6. Operating Rate, Production Capacity and Output of Soda Ash - The weekly industrial operating rate of soda ash is 89.12%. The weekly output of soda ash is 77.69 tons, among which the output of heavy - quality soda ash is 43.01 tons, at a historically high level [20][23]. 7. Changes in Soda Ash Industry Production Capacity - From 2023 to 2025, multiple enterprises have newly added production capacity plans. In 2023, the newly added production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned newly added production capacity was 750 tons, with an actual production of 100 tons [24]. 8. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Sales - to - production ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 113.40% [27]. - Downstream demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 16.02 tons, and the operating rate is 76.01% and stable [30]. 9. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national soda ash plants is 165.98 tons, an increase of 0.50% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [37]. 10. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in effective production capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate and total demand growth rate of soda ash [38].