大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of LLDPE and PP, suggesting that both are expected to show a volatile trend today. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern remains unchanged, with limited support for the cost side of polyolefins. The overall fundamentals are neutral, and the industrial inventory is moderately high [4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating some improvement in manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. OPEC+ decided on October 5 to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, with a lower increase than previous rumors. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern remains unchanged, providing limited support for the polyolefin cost side. Device maintenance has decreased, production has increased, the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is nearing its end, downstream demand is gradually weakening, and overall demand support is weak. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 7,080 (-80), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 3, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.0%, which is neutral [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 543,000 tons (+113,000), which is neutral [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, showing a bearish trend [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today, with the crude oil price also fluctuating. The agricultural film start - up rate has slightly increased but is still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory is moderately high [4]. - Likely Factors: Geopolitical unrest provides cost support [5]. - Negative Factors: Demand is weaker year - on - year, and there are many new production projects in the fourth quarter [5]. - Main Logic: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [5]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in September was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range. OPEC+ decided to increase production in November, with limited support for the cost side. New production capacity from Ningbo Jinfa has been put into operation, supply is abundant, and demand from the home appliance and real estate sectors is restricted by cautious expectations. The average downstream start - up rate is maintained at around 50%, and overall demand support is weak. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6,780 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 35, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.5%, showing a bullish trend [6]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 681,000 tons (+161,000), showing a bearish trend [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [6]. - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, showing a bearish trend [6]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today, with the crude oil price fluctuating, new production capacity put into operation, and the downstream average start - up rate maintained. The industrial inventory is moderately high [6]. - Likely Factors: Geopolitical unrest provides cost support [7]. - Negative Factors: Demand is weaker year - on - year, and there are many new production projects in the fourth quarter [7]. - Main Logic: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [8]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - LLDPE: The spot price of the delivery product is 7,080 (-80), the price of the 01 contract is 7,077 (-76), the basis is 3 (-4), the warehouse receipt is 12,729 (-7), the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 543,000 tons (+113,000), and the PE social inventory is 525,000 tons (0) [9]. - PP: The spot price of the delivery product is 6,780 (0), the price of the 01 contract is 6,745 (-107), the basis is 35 (+107), the warehouse receipt is 14,030 (-68), the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 681,000 tons (+161,000), and the PP social inventory is 372,000 tons (+91,000) [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing year by year, with a projected 20.5% increase in 2025E. The production, net import volume, and apparent consumption have also shown certain changes, and the PE import dependence has gradually decreased [14]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with a projected 11.0% increase in 2025E. The production, net import volume, and apparent consumption have changed, and the PP import dependence has also decreased [16].