棉花早报-20251010

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall outlook for cotton is mixed, with both bearish and bullish factors. The market is expected to face increased supply as new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season has passed halfway with a lackluster market performance. The short - term rebound of the main 01 contract after the holiday is mainly a technical rebound due to the previous price over - decline [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 No relevant content provided. 3.2每日提示 - Fundamentals: National cotton production is expected to be 722 million tons, with Xinjiang hitting a new high. Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 cotton season. For example, ICAC predicts a production of 25.5 million tons and consumption of 25.5 million tons; USDA predicts a production of 25.622 million tons and consumption of 25.872 million tons. In August, textile and clothing exports were $26.54 billion, a 5% year - on - year decrease. Cotton imports in August were 70,000 tons, a 51.6% year - on - year decrease, and棉纱 imports were 130,000 tons, an 18.18% year - on - year increase. The overall fundamental situation is bearish [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,739, and the basis for the 01 contract is 1444, indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The expected ending inventory in the 25/26 season in September by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture is 8.22 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - Main positions: The net short position has decreased, but the overall position is still bearish, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - Expectations: The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is half over, and the market is quiet. New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and the market expects an increase in supply. The main 01 contract rebounded after the holiday, mainly due to a short - term technical rebound after the pre - holiday price over - decline [4]. 3.3今日关注 No relevant content provided. 3.4基本面数据 - USDA Forecasts: In the 25/26 season, the total global cotton production is expected to be 25.622 million tons, a 230,000 - ton increase from the previous forecast; consumption is expected to be 25.872 million tons, an 184,000 - ton increase; and the ending inventory is expected to be 15.925 million tons, a 168,000 - ton decrease [9]. - ICAC Forecasts: In the 25/26 season, global cotton production is 2.59 million tons, a 40,000 - ton (+1.6%) increase; consumption is 2.56 million tons, basically flat; the ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, a 26,000 - ton (+1.6%) increase; and the global trade volume is 970,000 tons, a 36,000 - ton (+3.9%) increase. The price forecast for the Cotlook A index is 57 - 94 cents per pound [11]. - Ministry of Agriculture Forecasts: In the 25/26 season, domestic cotton production is 6.37 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.22 million tons [12]. 3.5持仓数据 No relevant content provided.