建信期货铜期货日报-20251010

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: October 10, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [4] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - Short - term copper prices are on a strong upward trend driven by events and capital speculation. Although the spot market is weak at home and strong abroad, the inflow of global funds into the copper market is expected to continue the short - term upward trend of copper prices [7] Group 4: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Shanghai copper opened high and moved high. The expected decline in production at the mine and smelting ends is being consolidated, and the supply - side pressure is easing, attracting global capital attention. The positions of LME, COMEX, and Shanghai copper are rising significantly, and the net long positions of CFTC and COTR funds are also increasing. However, the spot market is slightly weak, with the premium of Shanghai copper spot remaining flat at 15, and the downstream buying sentiment declining. The domestic social inventory increased by 18,000 tons during the holiday, and the positive structure of the near - month contract on the disk is expanding, so the spot premium is expected to be under pressure. The LME 0 - 3 contango structure has narrowed to 29.5, LME inventory has dropped to 139,000 tons, and COMEX inventory has increased to 304,000 tons, and the spot pressure in the overseas market is easing [7][10] Group 5: Industry News - Japan's PPC expects its copper production in the second half of the 2025/26 fiscal year to decrease by 2.5% year - on - year to 287,400 tons, and Mitsubishi Materials Corporation will reduce the concentrate processing volume of its Onahama smelter by about 25%, which means a reduction of about 75,000 ore tons in the second half of the fiscal year [11] - Aurubis has raised the long - term premium for electrolytic copper in Europe in 2026 to $315 per ton, a record high [11] - Teck Resources' Quebrada Blanca copper mine has extended its suspension due to a tailings dam heightening project. The 2025 copper production guidance has been lowered from 210,000 - 230,000 tons to 170,000 - 190,000 tons, and the 2026 forecast production has been reduced from 280,000 - 310,000 tons to 200,000 - 235,000 tons. The optimization project to increase the processing capacity by 5% - 10% will be postponed to after 2027 - 2028. Highland Valley Copper has also lowered its 2025 copper production guidance from 135,000 - 150,000 tons to 120,000 - 130,000 tons due to grade decline and maintenance needs [11][12]