铜期货月报：原料紧张向冶炼端传导，铜价重心上移-20251010

Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Futures Monthly Report - Date: October 10, 2025 - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint - Supported by the fundamentals, the copper price will strengthen, and the support level of the main contract of Shanghai copper will rise to 82,000 [9][16]. Summary of Each Section 1. Market Review and Future Outlook 1.1 Market Review - In September, the main contract of Shanghai copper traded between 79,380 and 83,820, with total positions rising 9.7% to 533,000 lots. The spot premium of domestic 1 electrolytic copper dropped to a discount at the end of the month. Social inventories continued to accumulate slightly, and bonded area inventories decreased by 0.21 million tons to 730,000 tons. LME copper traded between 9,844 and 10,485, with total positions up 12% to 300,000 lots. COMEX copper traded between 452.55 and 493.95, with total positions up 36% to 245,000 lots [11]. 1.2 Future Outlook - Fundamentally, the tight supply of raw materials will limit the growth of refinery production in the fourth quarter, while demand is expected to strengthen. Macroscopically, the Fed's interest - rate cuts are beneficial to the copper price. Overall, the copper price is expected to strengthen [9][15][16]. 2. Supply Side: Tight Raw Materials are Spreading to the Smelting End 2.1 Tight Supply - Demand in the Copper Concentrate Market - From January to July 2025, global copper mine supply increased by 536,000 tons to 13.485 million tons. Due to the accident at the Grasberg mine, the global copper mine increment in 2025 is expected to be adjusted down to 450,000 tons. The new project in the second half of 2025 is the second - phase of Julong Copper Mine, with a new capacity of 200,000 tons, but the capacity will be released in 2026. In September, the decline of imported copper concentrate TC slowed down. The demand for copper concentrate in China far exceeds the supply, and the supply - demand tension has intensified [17][18]. 2.2 Intensified Tightness of Cold Materials - In August, the import of anode copper decreased significantly, and the import of scrap copper was stable. The supply of cold materials is expected to remain tight in October, and the upside space for cold material processing fees is limited [20][22]. 2.3 Realization of Refinery Production - Cut Expectations - In September, the electrolytic copper production decreased significantly due to increased refinery maintenance and difficulties in purchasing anode copper. It is expected that the production will continue to decline in October and may further decrease in November due to maintenance plans and tight anode plate supply [25]. 3. Demand Side: Lackluster Peak Season for Copper Products, Resilient Terminal Demand 3.1 Lackluster Peak Season for Domestic Copper Products Production - From January to August, the domestic copper product output reached 16.6 million tons, with a year - on - year growth of 10.7%. In September, the start - up rates of copper rods and their downstream industries were lower than expected, and the peak season was lackluster [28][29]. 3.2 Obvious Recovery in the Automobile Market Driven by National Consumption - Promotion Policies - In August, automobile production and sales increased by 8.7% and 10.1% month - on - month respectively. New energy vehicle production and sales maintained rapid growth, and the export of new energy vehicles increased significantly year - on - year [32][33]. 3.3 Power Grid Investment Growth Offset the Decline in Power Source Investment - From January to August, the power grid investment was 379.576 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 14%. It is expected to further increase to address the imbalance between power source and power grid investment. The power source investment growth is expected to lag behind that of the power grid [35][36]. 3.4 Rebound in Household Appliance Output Growth, Continued Slowdown in Exports - From January to August 2025, the output of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines increased by 6%, 2%, and 8% year - on - year respectively, while the export growth slowed down. Global household appliance production and sales may face downward pressure in 2025 [40]. 3.5 The Downward Cycle of the Real Estate Market Continues - From January to August 2025, real estate investment, new construction, and completion growth rates were - 12.9%, - 19.5%, and - 17% respectively. The real estate market is expected to provide no support for copper demand this year [42][43].