大越期货菜粕早报-20251010

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2400 - 2460. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term spot demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market, but after the National Day, demand enters the off - season and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations are still uncertain, so the market will be affected by news and remain volatile in the short term [9]. - Rapeseed meal futures hit a high and then fell back due to the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. With rumors of tariff cuts between China and Canada recently, it has returned to a volatile pattern in the short term [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal futures rebounded after hitting the bottom, while the spot price was relatively stable, with a small fluctuation in the spot premium. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract oscillated at a low level. The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in September, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills continued to decline, and the weekly inventory of rapeseed meal remained flat. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills decreased significantly [17][19][22]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term export expectations, affecting domestic supply. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports was established, and a 75.8% import deposit was imposed. The final ruling result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, mainly due to higher - than - expected production in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the reduction in Ukraine's rapeseed production is offset by the increase in Russia's production. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the imposition of import deposits; the inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills is not large. Bearish factors: Domestic demand for rapeseed meal is gradually entering the off - season; the final result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From September 23 to October 9, the trading average price of soybean meal fluctuated between 2968 - 2991, and the trading volume varied from 3.81 - 25.9 million tons. The trading average price of rapeseed meal was between 2500 - 2560, and the trading volume was 0. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 431 - 468 [13]. - From September 23 to October 9, the price of rapeseed meal futures for the main 2601 contract was between 2395 - 2447, and for the far - month 2605 contract, it was between 2319 - 2343. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian was between 2500 - 2560 [15]. - From September 19 to October 9, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 9248 to 9199 [16]. - Aquatic fish prices rebounded slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [34]. 5. Position Data - The report does not provide specific position data analysis other than the fact that the main short positions decreased and funds flowed in [9].