大越期货沥青期货早报-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall Outlook: The supply pressure of asphalt is currently high, while the demand recovery is weak. The market is expected to experience narrow - range fluctuations in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3354 - 3396 [8]. - Supply - side: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% but a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The sample capacity utilization rate was 42.0062%, up 5.632 percentage points month - on - month. Sample enterprise production increased by 15.49% month - on - month, but the estimated device maintenance volume decreased by 14.02% month - on - month. Refineries increased production recently, raising supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [8]. - Demand - side: The current demand for asphalt is lower than the historical average. The开工率 of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes is either flat or down compared to the previous period and lower than the historical average [8]. - Cost - side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 596.95 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 14.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 779.8729 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10.36%. The loss of asphalt processing decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term cost support is expected to weaken [8]. - Market Factors: Bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support. Bearish factors are insufficient demand for high - priced sources, overall downward demand, and stronger expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Supply: Supply pressure remains high, with refineries increasing production recently but a possible decrease in supply pressure next week [8]. - Demand: Demand recovery is weak, with current demand lower than the historical average [8]. - Cost: Short - term cost support is expected to weaken due to the weakening of crude oil [8]. - Other Aspects: The basis shows a bullish sign with the spot price at a premium to the futures price. Inventories are showing a neutral trend with continuous destocking in social, factory, and port inventories. The futures price of the 11 - contract is below the MA20, showing a bearish sign. The net long position of the main contract has changed from short to long, showing a bullish sign [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Yesterday's Market Overview: Various indicators such as futures contracts, inventories, and production showed different trends of increase or decrease. For example, the 01 contract price decreased by 1.52% compared to the previous value [15]. - Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend: Provided the historical trend charts of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt [17]. - Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis: Included the spread trends of main contracts (such as 1 - 6, 6 - 12), the price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil, the crude oil cracking spread, and the price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [20][23][26][30]. - Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions: Showed the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt [33]. - Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: Included the profit trends of asphalt and the profit - spread trends between coking and asphalt [35][38]. - Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Supply - side: Covered aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production (weekly and monthly), Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, local refinery asphalt production, capacity utilization rate, and estimated maintenance loss volume [42][44][47]. - Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Inventory: Included exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and the inventory - to - stock ratio in factories [62][66][69]. - Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Import and Export Situation: Showed the export and import trends of asphalt and the import - price spread trend of South Korean asphalt [72][75]. - Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Demand - side: Included petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment), downstream machinery demand, asphalt 开工率 (by different types), and downstream 开工率 (such as shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane) [78][81][84]. - Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Presented the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to September 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand [104].