大越期货豆粕早报-20251010

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market is expected to return to a volatile pattern in the short term, with the M2601 contract oscillating between 2900 and 2960. The market is affected by factors such as the weather in US soybean - growing areas, Sino - US tariff negotiations, and the arrival of imported soybeans [8]. - The domestic soybean market is also in a volatile situation, with the A2511 contract ranging from 3900 to 4000. It is influenced by the cost of imported soybeans, the expected increase in domestic soybean demand, and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate between 2900 and 2960, and the domestic soybean A2511 is expected to range from 3900 to 4000 [8][10]. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are at a stalemate, causing short - term negative impacts on US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on soybean growth, harvest, and Sino - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remains at a relatively high level in October. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills decreased from a high level in October. The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig restocking, suppressing the expected price of soybean meal in October. However, due to the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations, the soybean meal market will return to a range - bound pattern [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and variable weather in US soybean - growing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high total arrival of imported soybeans in China in October and the expected high - yield of US soybeans [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish factors: high - yield of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: The spot price in East China is 2900, with a basis of - 39, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is 116.44 tons, a 2.48% increase from last week and a 13.54% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. - Soybeans: The spot price is 4140, with a basis of 165, indicating a premium to the futures. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills is 73.2 tons, a 0.21% increase from last week and a 6.35% increase compared to the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - For both soybean meal and soybeans, the long positions of the main players decreased, but capital flowed in [8][10]. Other Data - Soybean and Meal Transaction Data: From September 23 to October 9, the average transaction price and volume of soybean meal and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented in the report [15]. - Soybean and Meal Price Data: From September 23 to October 9, the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal are provided [17]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data: From September 19 to October 9, the changes in warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal are shown [19]. - Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 are presented, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [31][32]. - Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress: The planting and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 to 2025 are provided [33][34][37][38][39][40][41]. - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from March to September 2025 are included, with data on planting area, yield, production, etc. [42]. - Soybean - related Market Conditions: The weekly export inspection of US soybeans decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The arrival of imported soybeans decreased from a high level in September but increased overall year - on - year. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills decreased from a high level, while the inventory of soybean meal continued to increase. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills decreased from a high level. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased following US soybeans, and the profit on the futures market fluctuated slightly [43][45][46][48][52]. - Pig - related Market Conditions: The pig inventory continued to rise, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price recently declined again, and the piglet price remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs increased slightly. The domestic pig - farming profit recently deteriorated [54][56][58][60].