工业硅期货早报-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the market conditions of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures. For industrial silicon, the overall market is affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, cost, and inventory. For polysilicon, the supply - demand relationship also shows certain trends, with potential for subsequent market rebounds. The main logic for the overall market is that capacity mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The main influencing factors include cost increases, slow post - holiday demand recovery, and the supply - demand imbalance in the downstream polysilicon market [6][8][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - Industrial Silicon - Fundamentals: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 93,000 tons, a 1.09% increase from the previous week. The demand was 86,000 tons, a 7.50% increase. Polysilicon inventory was 226,000 tons, at a high level; organic silicon inventory was 55,100 tons, at a low level, with a production profit of - 708 yuan/ton, in a loss state, and a comprehensive operating rate of 70.59%, unchanged from the previous week and lower than the historical average. Alloy ingot inventory was 73,100 tons, at a high level. The cost support in Xinjiang's sample oxygen - passing 553 production increased, with a loss of 3,020 yuan/ton. Overall, the fundamentals are bullish [6]. - Basis: On October 09, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing 553 silicon in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 660 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 543,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory was 162,500 tons, a 7.11% decrease. The main port inventory was 120,000 tons, unchanged. Overall, the inventory situation is bearish [6]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, showing a neutral situation [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [6]. - Expectation: The supply scheduling is increasing, and the demand recovery is at a low level. The cost support is rising. The industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,505 - 8,775 [6]. 3.2 Daily View - Polysilicon - Fundamentals: Last week, the polysilicon production was 31,100 tons, a 0.32% increase from the previous week. The predicted production in October is 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from the previous month. The silicon wafer production last week was 12.83 GW, a 6.89% decrease, and the inventory was 167,800 tons, a 3.38% increase. The battery cell production showed short - term decreases but is expected to recover in the medium term. The component production also showed short - term decreases with medium - term recovery prospects. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [8]. - Basis: On October 09, the price of N - type dense material was 51,050 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 1,785 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 226,000 tons, a 10.78% increase, at a high level compared to the same period in history, showing a neutral situation [8]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, which is bearish [8]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and the long position is decreasing, which is bullish [8]. - Expectation: The supply scheduling continues to increase, while the demand shows a decline but may rebound later. The cost support remains stable. The polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 49,885 - 51,645 [8]. 3.3 Market Overview - Industrial Silicon: The prices of some futures contracts showed small fluctuations. The inventory of some regions and ports remained stable, while the sample enterprise inventory decreased. The production and operating rates of some regions remained unchanged [14]. - Polysilicon: The prices of some futures contracts also showed fluctuations. The silicon wafer production and inventory, battery cell production and profit, and component production and inventory all had corresponding changes [16]. 3.4 Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends The report presents the historical trends of the basis of industrial silicon's main contract and the price spread between 421 and 553 silicon in East China, which helps to understand the price relationship between the spot and futures markets and different product specifications [18][19]. 3.5 Inventory - Industrial Silicon: The social inventory remained unchanged, the sample enterprise inventory decreased, and the main port inventory remained stable [6][14]. - Polysilicon: The weekly inventory increased, reaching a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. 3.6 Production and Capacity Utilization - Industrial Silicon: The weekly production of sample enterprises in some regions remained unchanged, and the operating rate also showed little change [14]. - Polysilicon: The production showed an increasing trend, and the operating rate was affected by market demand [8]. 3.7 Cost - Industrial Silicon: The production cost in Xinjiang's sample oxygen - passing 553 production increased, and the production in some regions was in a loss state [6]. - Polysilicon: The average cost of the polysilicon industry remained stable, and the production profit was at a certain level [8]. 3.8 Supply - Demand Balance - Industrial Silicon: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables show the production, import, export, and consumption of industrial silicon, and the overall balance situation varies [35][38]. - Polysilicon: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the supply, import, export, and consumption of polysilicon, and the balance situation also changes over time [62]. 3.9 Downstream Market - Organic Silicon: The price, production, and inventory of DMC and other products showed corresponding changes. The operating rate of DMC remained stable, and the profit was in a loss state [41]. - Aluminum Alloy: The price, production, inventory, and demand of aluminum alloy products showed different trends. The import cost and profit of ADC12 also had corresponding changes [51]. - Polysilicon: The cost, price, production, and inventory of polysilicon and its downstream silicon wafers and battery cells all showed certain trends [59][65][67].