大越期货PVC期货早报-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report indicates that there are both positive and negative factors in the PVC market. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. Negative factors are the overall rebound in supply pressure, high and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - Positive factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [11] - Negative factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [11] - Main logic: Strong overall supply pressure and poor recovery of domestic demand [12] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Supply side: In September 2025, PVC production was 2.030766 million tons, a 2.05% month - on - month decrease. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 81.42%, a 0.03 - percentage - point month - on - month increase. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 337,665 tons, a 2.76% month - on - month increase, and ethylene method enterprise production was 140,610 tons, a 6.27% month - on - month increase. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with a slight increase in production scheduling [7]. - Demand side: The overall downstream开工率 was 47.76%, a 1.5 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile开工率 was 38.91%, a 0.52 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe开工率 was 40.43%, a 0.3 - percentage - point month - on - month increase, lower than the historical average. The downstream film开工率 was 63.93%, a 12.9 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin开工率 was 80.31%, unchanged month - on - month, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [7]. - Cost side: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 783.9115 yuan/ton, a 19.20% month - on - month increase in losses, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 645.3653 yuan/ton, a 1.00% month - on - month decrease in losses, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,249.25 yuan/ton, a 2.00% month - on - month decrease in profit, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [7]. - Basis: On October 9, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 69 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: Factory inventory was 318,237 tons, a 3.92% month - on - month increase. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 250,547 tons, a 3.94% month - on - month increase. Ethylene method factory inventory was 67,690 tons, a 3.81% month - on - month increase. Social inventory was 537,700 tons, a 0.56% month - on - month increase. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 5.3 days, a 2.91% month - on - month increase [8]. - Market trend: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20 [8]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions increased [8]. - Expectation: Calcium carbide method cost weakens, ethylene method cost strengthens, and the overall cost weakens. Supply pressure increases this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with an increase in production scheduling. Overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,738 - 4,800 [8]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's market overview data, including prices, price changes, spreads, and inventory data of different types of PVC products and related indicators [15]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the basis trend chart of PVC futures, showing the relationship between the basis, East China PVC market price, and the closing price of the main contract [18]. 3.5 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread - The report shows the spread trend chart of the main contract of PVC futures, including the spreads of different contract periods in 2024 and 2025 [24]. 3.6 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Related Factors - Lanthanum carbon: The report presents data on the price, cost - profit,开工率, inventory, and daily output of lanthanum carbon [27]. - Calcium carbide: It shows data on the price, cost - profit,开工率, maintenance loss, and production of calcium carbide [30]. - Liquid chlorine and raw salt: Data on the price, production of liquid chlorine, and the price, monthly production of raw salt are provided [32]. - Caustic soda: Information on the price, cost - profit,开工率, production, maintenance volume, and inventory of caustic soda is given [35]. 3.7 PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend - The report shows data on the capacity utilization rate, production profit, daily output, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of calcium carbide method and ethylene method PVC [39][41]. 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - The report presents data on the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, sales - production ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average开工率, and开工率 of different downstream products of PVC. It also includes data on real estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment [44][46][48][54][57]. 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - The report shows data on exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [59]. 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method - Data on the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads are provided [61]. 3.11 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report presents the supply - demand balance sheet of PVC, including data on export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import from August 2024 to September 2025 [64].