港股策略月报：2025年10月港股市场月度展望及配置策略-20251010

Group 1 - The overall outlook for the Hong Kong stock market remains cautious but optimistic, with a focus on sectors benefiting from policy support such as automotive, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and technology [3][6] - The Hong Kong stock market showed resilience in September, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 8.11%, the Hang Seng Index by 7.09%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 13.95%, despite ongoing economic pressures [4][13] - The market's valuation levels have increased, with the Hang Seng Index's PE ratio rising to 13.18, indicating a shift above the five-year average [21][24] Group 2 - The inflow of southbound funds into the Hong Kong market reached a record high in September, with net purchases amounting to HKD 188.5 billion, indicating strong interest from mainland investors [27][30] - The consumer discretionary sector saw significant net inflows, particularly driven by investments in Alibaba, which experienced a monthly price increase of over 50% [34][36] - The repurchase activity in the Hong Kong market increased significantly, with total repurchase amounts rising from HKD 11.2 billion to HKD 20.5 billion, highlighting a growing confidence among companies [36][37] Group 3 - The macroeconomic environment remains challenging, with domestic economic indicators showing signs of weakness, particularly in consumption and investment [39][44] - The policy environment is characterized by a more proactive fiscal policy aimed at stabilizing economic growth, with measures to boost consumption and support emerging industries [74][75] - The overseas economic landscape, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy, is crucial for the Hong Kong market, with expectations of further interest rate cuts influencing market sentiment [75][78]