Pig Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View In the short term, the pressure on pig sales during the double festivals will gradually ease. If there is concentrated replenishment in secondary fattening, prices are expected to stabilize. However, in the medium to long term, the supply pressure of pigs will continue to be released in the fourth quarter, and it is difficult to be optimistic about pig prices. Policy - led industry capacity reduction will take time to show results, and there will still be pressure on spot prices until the first half of next year. The recommended trading strategy is to short on rallies, and for arbitrage, focus on LH1 - 5 and LH3 - 7 reverse spreads [2]. Summary of Related Data - Futures Indicators: The basis of the main contracts (pig 2511, pig 2601) decreased, with the 11 - 1 spread down 21.28%. The main contract positions decreased by 4.53%, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 1 [2]. - Spot Prices: Spot prices in various regions decreased, with the largest decline in Henan at 1230 yuan/ton [2]. - Spot Indicators: The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased slightly by 0.04%. Weekly indicators such as white - striped pork prices, piglet prices, and sow prices remained unchanged. The monthly number of fertile sows decreased by 0.10% [2]. Meal Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View The fundamentals of US soybeans have not improved, and the new Brazilian soybean crop is expected to increase supply, suppressing the upside of US soybeans. There is a supply gap for domestic soybeans in the first quarter of 2026, supporting the M2601 price. Uncertainty lies in Sino - US trade negotiations. It is expected that the spot price of domestic soybeans and soybean meal will not improve this year, and the M2601 contract will fluctuate in the range of 2900 - 2950 [5]. Summary of Related Data - Soybean Meal: The spot price remained unchanged, the futures price of M2601 increased by 0.38%, and the basis decreased. The import crushing profit of Argentina decreased by 32.4%, and that of Brazil in November decreased [5]. - Rapeseed Meal: The spot price increased by 0.40%, the futures price of RM2601 increased by 0.58%, and the basis decreased. The import crushing profit of Canada in November increased by 2.91% [5]. - Soybeans: The spot price of some regions remained unchanged, the futures prices of soybean - one and soybean - two main contracts increased, and the basis decreased. There is a 600 - million - ton supply gap for domestic 11 - 12 - month shipments [5]. - Spreads: The 01 - 05 spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased, the oil - meal ratio increased, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread decreased [5]. Corn Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View Currently, corn is in the peak listing period. With the concentrated supply pressure, corn will maintain a weak pattern. Although feed and deep - processing enterprises need to replenish inventory seasonally, the current demand is mainly for rigid needs [7]. Summary of Related Data - Corn: The price of corn 2511 decreased, the basis decreased by 56.70%, the 11 - 3 spread remained unchanged, and the import profit decreased by 16.67%. The number of vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning increased by 6.34%, and the positions increased by 2.01% [7]. - Corn Starch: The price of corn starch 2511 decreased, the basis decreased by 13.04%, the 11 - 3 spread decreased by 371.43%, and the starch - corn spread decreased by 10.15%. The profit of Shandong starch increased by 75.00%, and the positions increased by 1.72% [7]. Oil Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View For palm oil, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are oscillating upwards. If the fundamentals are favorable, there is a chance to break through the previous high; otherwise, there is a risk of a pull - back. For domestic palm oil futures, there is also a risk of a pull - back near the previous high. For soybean oil, due to uncertainties in US industrial demand and potential policy changes in Brazil, the international soybean oil price is under pressure. Although domestic demand for replenishment after the holiday may boost prices, the abundant supply will limit the increase in basis quotes [10]. Summary of Related Data - Soybean Oil: The spot price increased by 2.74%, the futures price of Y2601 increased by 2.36%, and the basis increased. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 90 [10]. - Palm Oil: The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree increased by 4.42%, the futures price of P2601 increased, and the basis increased. The import cost increased, and the import profit increased [10]. - Rapeseed Oil: The spot price increased by 1.95%, the futures price of OI601 increased by 2.03%, and the basis decreased. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [10]. - Spreads: The 01 - 05 spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil changed, the soybean - palm oil spread decreased, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased [10]. Sugar Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View Internationally, the supply of Brazilian sugar has increased, and the upward momentum of raw sugar prices is limited, expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern between 15 - 17 cents/lb. Domestically, new sugar has been listed, and the overall trading atmosphere is light. Considering natural disasters, the increase in domestic production needs to be re - evaluated. Sugar prices are in a relatively undervalued area, and the possibility of a sharp decline is limited, expected to oscillate at the bottom between 5400 - 5600 [11]. Summary of Related Data - Futures Market: The prices of sugar 2601 and sugar 2605 increased, the ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 0.43%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 2.86%, the main contract positions decreased by 3.68%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.78% [11]. - Spot Market: Spot prices in Nanning and Kunming increased slightly, and the basis decreased. The import price of Brazilian sugar increased, and the difference between imported Brazilian sugar and domestic sugar changed [11]. - Industry Situation: Nationally, the cumulative sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, the industrial inventory increased, and the sugar import volume increased by 160%. In Brazil, the sugar production in the central - southern region in the first half of September increased by 15.72% year - on - year [11]. Cotton Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View US cotton prices are oscillating weakly. Domestically, cotton prices are under pressure due to increased supply expectations and weak demand. After the holiday, the price of cottonseed has stabilized, and the short - term downward space for cotton prices may be limited. Overall, cotton prices are expected to remain weak, and the short - term market may fluctuate [12]. Summary of Related Data - Futures Market: The prices of cotton 2605 and cotton 2601 increased, the ICE US cotton main contract decreased by 0.74%, the 5 - 1 spread increased by 66.67%, the main contract positions increased by 2.81%, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.66%, and the valid forecast decreased by 50.00% [12]. - Spot Market: Spot prices decreased slightly, and the difference between spot and futures contracts decreased [12]. - Industry Situation: Commercial and industrial inventories decreased, imports increased by 40%, the inventory days of yarn and grey cloth decreased, the cotton shipping volume out of Xinjiang increased by 22.6%, the processing profit of spinning enterprises increased by 6.2%, and the retail sales of clothing and textiles increased by 8.7% [12]. Egg Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View In October, the egg market will be in a pattern of relatively high supply and temporarily weak demand. Egg prices will continue to oscillate downward, lacking strong upward momentum [15]. Summary of Related Data - Futures Indicators: The prices of the egg 11 and 01 contracts decreased, the basis decreased, and the 11 - 01 spread increased by 16.46% [15]. - Spot Indicators: The egg - laying hen price remained unchanged, the price of culled hens decreased by 0.64%, the egg - feed ratio decreased by 0.70%, and the breeding profit decreased by 33.75% [15].
广发期货《农产品》日报-20251010
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-10-10 05:52