大越期货燃料油早报-20251010

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View - Due to the implementation of the cease - fire agreement between Hamas and Israel, geopolitical concerns have weakened. With no new news on Russian sanctions and lack of geopolitical support, oil prices are expected to decline. Fuel oil is likely to follow, and considering the lack of improvement in shipping demand and weakening power generation demand, there is significant pressure in the future market. The expected operating range for FU2601 is 2770 - 2820, and for LU2511 is 3300 - 3360 [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The expected operating range for FU2601 is 2770 - 2820, and for LU2511 is 3300 - 3360. The market is affected by geopolitical factors, shipping and power generation demand [3]. 2. Multi - Short Focus - Likely Positive Factors: None mentioned. - Likely Negative Factors: Optimism on the demand side remains to be verified; there is a possibility of increased sanctions on Russia and an extension of Russia's fuel oil export restrictions. The market is driven by the resonance of supply affected by geopolitical risks and neutral demand [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - Supply: The inflow of component oils for blending low - sulfur fuel oil is increasing, and with the end of the peak power - consumption season in the Middle East, the inflow of high - sulfur fuel oil from this region will increase, keeping the Asian market well - supplied [3]. - Demand: High - sulfur fuel oil bunker demand remains stable, but overall shipping demand has not improved, and power generation demand has weakened [3]. - Basis: The basis for Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 58 yuan/ton, and for low - sulfur fuel oil is 0 yuan/ton, with the spot price at par with the futures price [3]. - Inventory: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of September 24 was 2316.9 million barrels, an increase of 1 million barrels [3]. - Market Trend: Prices are above the 20 - day line, which is flat [3]. - Main Positions: High - sulfur main positions are long, with a reduction in long positions; low - sulfur main positions are short, with an increase in short positions [3]. 4. Spread Data - Futures Price Changes: The price of the FU main contract decreased from 2937 to 2870, a decrease of 67, or 2.28%. The price of the LU main contract decreased from 3482 to 3402, a decrease of 80, or 2.30%. The FU basis decreased from 117 to 97, a decrease of 20, or 16.80%. The LU basis decreased from 64 to 45, a decrease of 18, or 28.35% [5]. - Spot Price Changes: The price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 482.00 to 481.00, a decrease of 1.00, or 0.21%. The price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 500.00 to 498.00, a decrease of 2.00, or 0.40%. The price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 395.17 to 393.22, a decrease of 1.95, or 0.49%. The price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 463.34 to 458.78, a decrease of 4.56, or 0.98%. The price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 372.09 to 370.89, a decrease of 1.20, or 0.32%. The price of Singapore diesel increased from 635.97 to 642.13, an increase of 6.16, or 0.97% [6]. 5. Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory on July 23 was 1990.9 million barrels, a decrease of 45 million barrels; on July 30, it was 2027.9 million barrels, an increase of 37 million barrels; on August 6, it was 2074.9 million barrels, an increase of 47 million barrels; on August 13, it was 2263.9 million barrels, an increase of 189 million barrels; on August 20, it was 2391.9 million barrels, an increase of 128 million barrels; on August 27, it was 2188.9 million barrels, a decrease of 203 million barrels; on September 3, it was 2330.9 million barrels, an increase of 142 million barrels; on September 10, it was 2303.9 million barrels, a decrease of 27 million barrels; on September 17, it was 2315.9 million barrels, an increase of 12 million barrels; on September 24, it was 2316.9 million barrels, an increase of 1 million barrels; on October 1, it was 2225.9 million barrels, a decrease of 91 million barrels [8].