大越期货原油早报-20251010

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement, the ongoing US government shutdown, and the potential for new US sanctions on Russia have led to a significant reduction in geopolitical concerns, causing oil prices to decline. With insufficient bullish stimuli and an expected oversupply in the fourth quarter, crude oil is trending downward. The domestic market price has broken below the lower limit of the previous trading range, facing significant pressure in the future. Short-term trading is expected to be in the range of 460 - 470, and long-term long positions are advised to be closed [3]. - In the short term, geopolitical conflicts are weakening, and in the medium to long term, there is a risk of increased supply [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Fundamentals: The Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement and the ongoing US government shutdown are bearish factors. Trump's indication of possible new sanctions on Russia also adds uncertainty [3]. - Basis: On October 9, the spot prices of Oman and Qatar Marine crude oil were $66.95/barrel and $65.87/barrel respectively, with a basis of $25.17/barrel, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is a bullish factor [3]. - Inventory: The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending October 3 increased by 2.78 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 2.25 million barrels. The EIA inventory for the same period increased by 3.715 million barrels, also exceeding the expected increase of 1.885 million barrels. The Cushing area inventory decreased by 763,000 barrels during the week ending October 3. As of October 9, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.401 million barrels, which is bearish [3]. - Market: The 20-day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish [3]. - Main Position: As of September 23, the long positions in the WTI crude oil main contract increased, while as of September 30, the long positions in the Brent crude oil main contract decreased, showing a neutral stance [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Geopolitical: The Israeli government approved a ceasefire agreement with Hamas, which may lead to a relaxation of the Middle East situation. The US imposed sanctions on about 100 individuals, entities, and vessels, including a Chinese independent refinery and a terminal operator, for assisting Iran in oil and petrochemical product trading [5]. - Monetary Policy: New York Fed President Williams supports the Fed's decision to continue cutting interest rates this year, while Fed Governor Barr believes that the Fed should be cautious about further rate cuts [5]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish: The Russia-Ukraine conflict poses a threat to refineries and oil fields [6]. - Bearish: The relaxation of the Middle East situation, the risk of the US government shutdown, and OPEC+'s consideration of continuing to increase production [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil were $69.22, $65.72, $480.5, and $70.53 respectively, with changes of $0.64 (+0.93%), $0.74 (+1.14%), -$14.00 (-2.83%), and -$0.08 (-0.11%) [7]. - Spot Market: The settlement prices of UK Brent, WTI, Oman, Shengli, and Dubai crude oil were $72.09, $65.72, $70.88, $66.72, and $70.71 respectively, with changes of $1.50 (+2.12%), $0.74 (+1.14%), $0.05 (+0.07%), $0.63 (+0.95%), and -$0.09 (-0.13%) [9]. - Inventory Data: The API crude oil inventory for the week ending October 3 increased by 2.78 million barrels, and the EIA inventory increased by 3.715 million barrels [3]. 3.5 Position Data - As of September 23, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds increased by 4,249, while as of September 30, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds decreased by 11,466 [3][17][19].