碳月报：全国碳市场价格承压震荡运行-20251010

Report Date - October 10, 2025 [2] Research Team - Energy and Chemical Research Team includes researchers for different sectors such as crude oil, PTA/MEG, industrial silicon, polyolefins, pulp, and glass soda ash [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The national carbon market price is under pressure and fluctuating [4] Summary by Section 1. National Carbon Market Overview - In September, the national carbon market's highest price was 69.49 yuan/ton, the lowest was 57.72 yuan/ton, and the closing price dropped 16.35% from the last trading day of the previous month. The total trading volume was 32,700,907 tons, and the total turnover was 2,003,662,939.74 yuan. From January 1 to September 30, 2025, the trading volume was 98,098,802 tons, and the turnover was 6,797,362,256.82 yuan [7] - Fudan Carbon Index shows price expectations for October and December 2025 for national carbon emission allowances (CEA) and China Certified Emission Reductions (CCER), with some price indices showing declines [8] - From January to July 2025, thermal power generation decreased 1.30% year-on-year, cement production decreased 4.5% year-on-year, electrolytic aluminum production increased 2.54% year-on-year, pig iron production decreased 1.3% year-on-year, and crude steel production decreased 3.1% year-on-year [9][10] 2. Market News - At the 2025 China Carbon Market Conference, the Deputy Minister of Ecology and Environment introduced the progress and achievements of the national carbon market since 2024 and outlined future plans. The Minister reported on the significant achievements and challenges in climate change response and carbon peaking and neutrality work, highlighting issues like the resurgence of "two high" projects [11] 3. Data Summary - Not provided with specific summary information other than the mention of data sources and some chart references [13][17][22]