棉花（纱）市场周报-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the main Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract rose with a weekly increase of about 0.83%, while the price of the US cotton December contract fell with a weekly decline of about 1.47% [5][11] - In the US cotton market, as of September 23, 2025, non - commercial long positions decreased by 751 hands, non - commercial short positions increased by 2020 hands, and net short positions increased by 2771 hands compared to the previous week [11] - In the domestic market, the commercial cotton inventory has dropped to a low level in the same period. The purchase price of seed cotton in Xinjiang has risen slightly, and the new cotton is gradually coming onto the market with a significant bumper harvest in the new year, increasing supply - side pressure. The orders of textile mills have not improved significantly, and the operating rate is still lower than the same period last year, and the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" has not appeared [5] - It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term for the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract. Future trading should focus on changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: The price of the main Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract rose this week with a weekly increase of about 0.83% [5] - Market Outlook: In the US, less rainfall in cotton - growing areas is conducive to harvesting, and new cotton supply will put pressure on prices. In China, the supply - side pressure is increasing due to new cotton listing and a bumper harvest, while the demand side has not improved significantly [5] - Strategy Suggestion: Wait and see in the short - term for the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract. Pay attention to post - holiday restocking and the listing rhythm [6] - Future Trading Tips: Focus on changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - US Cotton Market: The price of the US cotton December contract fell this week with a weekly decline of about 1.47%. As of September 23, 2025, non - commercial long positions were 69367 hands (down 751 hands from the previous week), non - commercial short positions were 114787 hands (up 2020 hands), and net short positions were 45420 hands (up 2771 hands) [11] - Foreign Cotton Spot Market: From September 18th, the net increase in US cotton export sales was 86100 bales. The international cotton spot price was 76.05 cents per pound, down 1.1 cents per pound from last week [15] - Futures Market: The price of the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract rose with a weekly increase of about 0.83%, and the price of the cotton yarn futures 2601 contract rose with a weekly increase of about 0.21%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 51037 hands, and that in cotton yarn futures was - 206 hands. The number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2942, and that of cotton yarn futures was 0 [20][27][33] - Spot Market: As of October 10, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14757 yuan per ton, and the Chinese cotton yarn spot C32S index price was 20460 yuan per ton [39][51] - Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost: As of October 9, the import cotton price with sliding - scale duty was 13965 yuan per ton (down 103 yuan per ton from last week), and the import cotton quota price was 12978 yuan per ton (down 168 yuan per ton). The import cotton yarn price index for different specifications is also provided [55] - Imported Cotton Price Cost - Profit: As of October 9, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 774 yuan per ton (down 20 yuan per ton from last week), and that of imported cotton with quota was 1761 yuan per ton (up 45 yuan per ton) [58] 3.3 Industry Situation - Supply - Side: As of the end of August, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1481700 tons (down 708100 tons from last month, a decrease of 32.34%), and the cotton industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 892000 tons (down 6000 tons month - on - month). In August 2025, China's cotton import volume was about 70000 tons (up 20000 tons month - on - month, down 80000 tons or 51.6% year - on - year), and the imported cotton yarn volume was 130000 tons (up 20000 tons month - on - month, up 20000 tons year - on - year) [61][67] - Mid - end Industry (Demand - Side): As of the end of August, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.6 days (down 1.1 days month - on - month), and the grey cloth inventory was 33.9 days (down 2.3 days month - on - month) [70] - Terminal Consumption (Demand - Side): In August 2025, China's textile and clothing export volume was 26.54 billion US dollars (down 5% year - on - year, down 0.8% month - on - month). Among them, textile exports were 12.39 billion US dollars (up 1.5% year - on - year, up 6.8% month - on - month), and clothing exports were 14.15 billion US dollars (down 10.1% year - on - year, down 6.7% month - on - month). As of August 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of domestic clothing were 670.83 billion yuan (up 11.95% month - on - month), and the cumulative year - on - year was 2.2% [75][79] 3.4 Options and Stock - Market - Related Market - Options Market: Information on the implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week is presented, but specific data is not described in text [80] - Stock Market: The price - earnings ratio trend of Xinong Development is shown, but specific data is not described in text [83]