Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand for safe - haven assets is boosted by the potential U.S. government shutdown, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is strengthened. The real interest rate of U.S. Treasury bonds is declining. Global central banks are continuously increasing their gold holdings, and the "de - dollarization" trend enhances the allocation value of gold. Geopolitical uncertainties and concerns about the U.S. dollar's credit further support the long - term safe - haven nature of precious metals [3]. - The upward gap of Shanghai copper yesterday was in line with expectations. Whether sentiment or expectation will be dominant in the future may affect copper price fluctuations. From a trend perspective, Shanghai copper has broken through, and in the short - term cycle, it has reached the upper range of fluctuations. Adjustment at high levels is not unexpected, and the same situation applies to LME copper [18]. - Affected by copper and gold prices and macro - policies, Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Alumina is still in an oversupply situation, and the prices of domestic and foreign spot alumina are continuously falling. Cast aluminum alloy has a strong follow - up effect on Shanghai aluminum and is also expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [37]. - The zinc price was driven by the overall rise of the non - ferrous metal sector in the previous trading day. The LME zinc price was stronger during the holiday, and the import profit and loss has reached a low point, with the export window expected to open soon. The fundamentals of Shanghai zinc are still weak, with an obvious pattern of strong supply and weak demand [61]. - In the nickel industry chain, the quota for nickel mines in Indonesia in 2026 is expected to decrease. The purchasing intention in the new energy sector has recovered after the holiday, and the price of nickel iron is limited in its downward space due to cost pressure. The spot trading of stainless steel has improved after the holiday, and the export situation is favorable [77]. - Affected by the U.S. government shutdown during the holiday, the macro - uncertainty has increased. The expectation of interest rate cuts has become the main trading logic in the market again. Coupled with supply - side disturbances in Wa State and Indonesia, Shanghai tin is still considered to be in a strong position [91]. - The previous market expectation of the shutdown of lithium mines in Jiangxi has not been verified. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of Xiawo lithium mine and the restocking situation of downstream sectors [107]. - For industrial silicon, as the dry season approaches, more enterprises are expected to cut production, and the price center may move slightly upward, but the overall inventory in the industry will suppress the price increase. For polysilicon, the market trading will focus on the expectations of "platform establishment in October" and "centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November", and investors should be cautious due to high volatility [118]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - Price data: SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios, and the relationship between gold prices and U.S. Treasury real interest rates and the U.S. dollar index are presented [4][10]. - Inventory data: SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures and spot price differences, and the inventory data of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver are shown [6][17]. Copper - Futures data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai copper and LME copper futures are provided. The main contract closing price, trading volume, and open interest of Shanghai copper futures are also presented [19][21]. - Spot data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of domestic copper spot prices are given, including those of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumao, and others. The import profit and loss of copper, the difference between refined and scrap copper prices, and the warehouse receipt data of Shanghai copper are also included [24][33]. Aluminum - Price data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum, LME aluminum, and alumina futures are provided, as well as the price differences between different contracts [38][42]. - Spot data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of domestic aluminum spot prices are given, including those of East China, Foshan, and Central China. The import profit and loss of aluminum and alumina, and the inventory data of Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum are also included [49][55]. Zinc - Price data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc futures are provided, as well as the price differences between different contracts [62]. - Spot data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of domestic zinc spot prices are given, including those of SMM 0 zinc and SMM 1 zinc. The inventory data of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc are also included [70][74]. Nickel Industry Chain - Price data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai nickel and LME nickel futures are provided, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipt data of Shanghai nickel [78]. - Industry data: The quota policy of nickel mines in Indonesia, the market situation of the new energy sector, the price of nickel iron, and the export situation of stainless steel are presented [77]. Tin - Futures data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai tin and LME tin futures are provided [91]. - Spot data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of domestic tin spot prices are given, including those of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots and tin concentrates. The inventory data of Shanghai tin and LME tin are also included [98][102]. Lithium Carbonate - Futures data: The closing prices, daily changes, and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures contracts are provided, as well as the price differences between different contracts [108]. - Spot data: The latest prices, daily changes, daily change rates, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of lithium spot prices are given, including those of lithium mica, lithium spodumene concentrate, and others. The inventory data of lithium carbonate are also included [112][116]. Silicon Industry Chain - Industrial Silicon - Price data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon spot prices in different regions are provided, as well as the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon futures contracts [119][120]. - Industry data: The production, inventory, and capacity utilization rate data of industrial silicon in Xinjiang and Yunnan are presented [132][134]. - Polysilicon - Price data: The prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, solar cells, and components are presented [125][126]. - Industry data: The total inventory of polysilicon in China and the average cost of the polysilicon industry are presented [135][136].
贵金属有色金属产业日报-20251010
Dong Ya Qi Huo·2025-10-10 09:50