硅锰市场周报：产业定价板块偏弱，开工回落库存回升-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroscopically, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee will be held in Beijing from October 20th to 23rd; the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement on governing price disorderly competition and maintaining a good market price order. Overseas, the Israeli government approved a cease - fire agreement in Gaza early on the 10th. In terms of supply and demand, pre - holiday inventory rose rapidly, production continued to decline slightly at a high level, and inventory increased for three consecutive weeks. Technically, the weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend. It is expected that after October, new production capacity in Inner Mongolia is expected to increase, increasing supply pressure. The demand for crude steel will continue to decline, and alloys will likely remain in a loss state. The manganese - silicon main contract is expected to oscillate between 5650 - 5850 [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Macro and Overseas: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd; the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a price - related announcement; the Israeli government approved a Gaza cease - fire agreement on the 10th [6] - Supply and Demand: Pre - holiday inventory rose rapidly, production continued to decline slightly at a high level, inventory increased for three consecutive weeks. The port inventory of imported manganese ore increased by 206,000 tons, and the molten iron output fluctuated at a high level [6] - Profit and Market: The spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 130 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was - 250 yuan/ton. HeSteel Group's final silicon - manganese price in September was 6000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton month - on - month [6] - Technical Analysis: The weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6] - Strategy Suggestion: After October, new production capacity in Inner Mongolia is expected to increase, increasing supply pressure. The demand for crude steel will continue to decline, and alloys will likely remain in a loss state. The manganese - silicon main contract is expected to oscillate between 5650 - 5850 [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market: As of October 10th, the silicon - manganese futures contract open interest was 565,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 82,700 lots. The 5 - 1 contract monthly spread was 34, a decrease of 2 points week - on - week. The manganese - silicon warehouse receipt quantity was 54,041, a decrease of 820 week - on - week. The price difference between the manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon January contracts was 364, an increase of 74 points week - on - week [12][16] - Spot Market: As of October 10th, the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot price was 5550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday. The basis was - 168 yuan/ton, an increase of 48 points week - on - week [23] 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - Industry: The operating rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 43.19%, a decrease of 0.99% week - on - week. The daily average output was 29,175 tons, a decrease of 315 tons. The weekly demand for five major steel grades of silicon - manganese (70%) was 122,073 tons, a decrease of 0.34% week - on - week. The national silicon - manganese output (99% weekly supply) was 204,225 tons, a decrease of 1.07% week - on - week. The national inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises increased by 7700 tons to 242,500 tons [25][30] - Upstream: As of October 10th, the price of South32 South African semi - carbonate lump at Tianjin Port was 34.2 yuan/ton - degree, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/ton - degree week - on - week. As of September 29th, the electricity prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia were flat week - on - week. The port inventory of imported manganese ore increased by 206,000 tons to 4.478 million tons. The arrival volume of manganese ore from different regions had different changes. The northern region's spot production profit was - 170 yuan/ton, and the southern region's was - 540 yuan/ton [34][38][42] - Downstream: The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.4154 million tons, a decrease of 2,700 tons week - on - week and an increase of 84,600 tons year - on - year. HeSteel Group's final silicon - manganese price in September was 6000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton month - on - month [45]