油脂油料产业日报-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report Palm Oil - International Market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in a high - level correction. MPOB inventory at 236 million tons exceeded the market estimate of 215 million tons, but the export growth in the first 10 days supported the market. Short - term focus is on whether it can stop falling and stabilize between 4,500 - 4,550 ringgit. If it can stand above 4,500 ringgit, there's a chance to strengthen; otherwise, it may fall to 4,350 ringgit [3]. - Domestic Market: Dalian palm oil futures are also in a correction. Affected by Malaysian palm oil, there's pressure to break below the 40 - day moving average and fill the gap, with a possible drop to 9,000 yuan. The overall trend depends on Malaysian palm oil. As domestic temperatures drop after the National Day holiday, palm oil consumption will weaken, keeping the market in a near - strong and far - weak pattern [3]. Soybean Oil - After the National Day holiday, traders replenished stocks. As replenishment ends, demand will weaken. In the fourth quarter, soybean imports are estimated at 28 - 29 million tons, and factories will maintain high operating rates, dragging down the futures market. Before the Sino - US summit, CBOT soybeans are range - bound, having limited impact on domestic oils. The January contract of Dalian soybean oil faces pressure at 8,400 yuan, is expected to fluctuate around 8,300 yuan, and may fall back to 8,000 yuan due to sufficient supply [4]. Bean Meal - The theoretical spread between bean meal and rapeseed meal has improved, but without a clear Sino - US trade negotiation result, Dalian bean meal lacks a continuous driving force and is expected to trade between 2,900 - 2,950 yuan/ton in the short term. Spot prices of oil mills decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. Supply - side: After the holiday, oil mills resumed production, and inventories in East and South China are accumulating. Demand - side: Post - holiday prices of poultry and pigs fell, and feed enterprises are digesting high - cost inventories. The short - term market shows weak supply and demand, with spot prices expected to range from 2,900 - 3,100 yuan/ton [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Oil and Fat Monthly and Inter - Variety Spreads - Provided data on spreads such as P 1 - 5, P 5 - 9, Y - P 01, etc., including prices and daily changes [5]. Palm Oil Spot and Futures Daily Prices - Showed the latest prices and price changes of palm oil contracts (01, 05, 09), BMD palm oil, and spot prices in Guangzhou, as well as palm oil basis and other data [8]. Domestic First - Grade Soybean - 24 - Degree Palm Oil Spread - No specific data summary provided, only mentioned the topic and source [11]. Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Daily Prices - Presented the latest prices and price changes of soybean oil contracts (01, 05, 09), CBOT soybean oil, and spot prices in Shandong, as well as soybean oil basis and other data [14]. POGO Spread and Related Data - Provided information on POGO spread and the weekly average spread between US biodiesel and diesel, along with their sources [16]. Oilseed Futures Prices - Gave the closing prices, daily changes, and price change rates of bean meal (01, 05, 09), rapeseed meal (01, 05, 09), CBOT soybeans, and the offshore RMB [19]. Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - Included data on spreads such as M01 - 05, M05 - 09, RM01 - 05, etc., as well as spot prices and basis of bean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions, and the spread between bean meal and rapeseed meal [20][22]. International Soybean Crushing Profit - Showed the crushing profit of international soybeans and imported rapeseed from overseas, along with their sources [31].