建信期货原油日报-20251010

Report Overview - Industry: Crude Oil [1] - Date: October 10, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The oil market is fundamentally bearish due to OPEC+ production increases and a supply - demand imbalance. The market will be in a state of oversupply in Q4 2025 and 2026. The suggested trading strategy is to short on price rallies and consider reverse arbitrage [6][7] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Trading Recommendations - Market Review: WTI closed at $61.79/barrel, up 0.77%; Brent closed at $66.08/barrel, up 0.96%; SC closed at 471 yuan/barrel, down 1.98%. OPEC+ increased production by 137,000 barrels per day starting from October. Russia's oil exports are stable, and US oil production growth is slow [6] - Balance Sheet: In Q4 2025, the crude oil market will continue to be oversupplied, with an expected inventory build - up of 2.55 million barrels per day, 320,000 barrels per day higher than last month. In 2026, the inventory build - up rate is expected to be 2.09 million barrels per day, up from 1.87 million barrels per day [7] - Trading Strategy: Short on price rallies and consider reverse arbitrage [7] 2. Industry News - ExxonMobil shut down the gasoline - producing fluid catalytic cracking unit at its Beaumont, Texas refinery - Russia will gradually increase oil production and is committed to implementing OPEC+ agreements. Diesel exports do not require quotas - Citigroup believes the overall sentiment in the oil market remains bearish, though there are differences in the degree of pessimism about the crude oil outlook [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, EIA crude oil inventories, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [10][11][18][22]