集运早报-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core View of the Report - Due to geopolitical easing and shipping companies' announcements, the spot market is gradually entering the peak season. Under the game of the two factors, it is expected that the short - term futures market will fluctuate greatly. A cease - fire does not mean resumption of navigation. It is expected that the contract for December will operate strongly, and the contracts in 2026 carry greater risks. Before a clear signal of geopolitical easing emerges, the contract for February may follow the spot market more closely [1] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - Futures Price and Fluctuation: The closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 are 1119.9, 1688.0, 1406.0, 1119.9, and 1277.5 respectively, with fluctuations of 0.84%, - 2.53%, - 14.41%, - 10.7%, and - 13.05% [1]. - Futures Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 are 15562, 41507, 12789, 6566, and 990 respectively, and the open interests are 21030, 24222, 8743, 11087, and 1370 respectively, with open - interest changes of - 5752, 3451, 209, 1856, and 471 [1]. - Futures Month - spread: The month - spreads of EC2510 - 2512 and EC2512 - 2602 are - 568.1 and 282.0 respectively, with daily - on - daily changes of 53.2 and 192.9, and weekly - on - weekly changes of 69.9 and 190.0 [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Index - Index Data: The SCHIS index on October 6, 2025, is 1046.5 points, down 6.60% from the previous period; the SCFI (European line) on September 26, 2025, is 971 US dollars/TEU, down 7.70% from the previous period; the CCFI (European line) is 1401.91 points, down 4.69% from the previous period; the NCFI is 614.14 points, down 8.83% from the previous period [1]. 3.3 Recent European Line Quotations - Week 40 - 41: The average quotation is 1450 US dollars (equivalent to 1020 points on the futures market). Among them, MSK quotes 1400 US dollars, PA quotes 1300 - 1500 US dollars, YML quotes 1300 US dollars (the lowest price of the year), and OA quotes 1400 - 1600 US dollars [2]. - Week 42: The announced price increase is to 1800 - 2000 US dollars. On Thursday, MSK announced a price increase for the European line in November, with the price rising to 1625 US dollars for a 20 - foot container and 2500 US dollars for a 40 - foot container, equivalent to 1740 points on the futures market [2]. 3.4 Related News - Israel - Hamas Cease - fire: On October 10, the Israeli government approved the Gaza cease - fire agreement, but some far - right officials voted against it. The Houthi armed forces said they would closely monitor the implementation of the cease - fire agreement [3][4]