苹果市场周报-20251010

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of the Apple Futures 2601 contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of 1.47%. New-season late-maturing Fuji apples are sporadically on the market, and the opening prices in the western production areas are generally 0.3 - 1 yuan per jin higher than the same period last year. Due to rainfall, the centralized listing time of late Fuji is postponed to around mid-October. Merchants are relatively active in purchasing high-quality goods, and the prices remain stable and firm. In the sales area market, apple trading is average, and there is no obvious improvement in sales during the Double Festival. The postponed listing time in the western production areas not only shortens the purchasing time but may also lead to simultaneous concentrated supply in various production areas. Attention should be paid to the quality of late Fuji after harvest. It is recommended to adopt a short-term long strategy for the Apple 2601 contract. Future trading should focus on the listing volume of late-maturing Fuji and consumption [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Market Review: The price of the Apple Futures 2601 contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of 1.47% [4][8]. - Market Outlook: New-season late-maturing Fuji apples are sporadically on the market, with higher opening prices in the western production areas. The centralized listing time is postponed to around mid-October. Merchants are active in purchasing high-quality goods, and prices are stable. In the sales area, trading is average. The postponed listing may lead to simultaneous supply in various areas, and attention should be paid to fruit quality [4]. - Strategy Recommendation: Adopt a short-term long strategy for the Apple 2601 contract [4]. - Future Trading Tips: Focus on the listing volume of late-maturing Fuji and consumption [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market: The price of the Apple Futures 2601 contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of 1.47%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in apple futures is 10,901 lots, and the number of apple futures warehouse receipts is 0 [8][14]. - Spot Market: As of October 10, 2025, the mainstream price of bagged Red Fuji 80 and above first- and second-grade farmer's goods in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong is 3.7 yuan per jin; the price of bagged Fuji apples 75 and above in Yiyuan, Shandong is 2.3 yuan per jin [17]. 3.3 Industry Situation and Options - Supply - Cold Storage Situation in 2024 Production Season: As of October 9, 2025, the apple cold storage inventory in the main production areas of the country is 67,900 tons, a decrease of 53,900 tons from last week [24]. - Demand - Apple Wholesale Market Arrival Volume: As of October 9, the average daily morning arrival volume of vehicles in the main apple wholesale markets in Guangdong has increased. The profit of 80 first- and second-grade apple storage merchants is 0.30 yuan per jin [26]. - Demand - Average Wholesale Price Trends of All Varieties and Fuji Apples: As of September 26, 2025, the wholesale price of all varieties of apples is 9.77 yuan per kilogram, a week-on-week decrease of 0.01 yuan per kilogram; the wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.28 yuan per kilogram, a week-on-week decrease of 0.07 yuan per kilogram [31]. - Substitute Situation - Wholesale Prices of Various Fruits: As of September 26, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of 5 kinds of fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, grapes, pears, and watermelons) is 6.91 yuan per kilogram, a week-on-week increase of 0.09 yuan per kilogram [35]. - Demand - Apple Export Volume: In August 2025, China's fresh apple exports totaled about 68,400 tons, with an export value of 69,739,352 US dollars and an average export price of 1,019 US dollars per ton. The export volume increased by 27.61% month-on-month compared with July and decreased by 17.61% year-on-year compared with August 2024. From January to August 2025, China's fresh apple exports totaled 530,000 tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 7.60% [38]. - Options Market - Implied Volatility of Apple At-the-Money Options This Week: Information presented in the form of a chart [39]. 3.4 Futures - Stock Correlation - Stock Market - Honghui Fruit and Vegetable: Information presented in the form of a chart showing the price - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit and Vegetable [41].