Report Overview - Report Name: Weekly Report on the Pig Market [2] - Date: October 10, 2025 - Researcher: Zhang Xin - Industry: Pig Market 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The pig price opened significantly lower and declined after the holiday, with the main contract 2511 falling 8.38% weekly. In the short - term, the supply - demand pattern of pigs remains loose, and the pig price will oscillate weakly. It is recommended to conduct short - side trading on the 2601 contract or perform reverse arbitrage operations on pig futures [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - Market Review: The pig price opened low and dropped after the holiday, with the main contract 2511 down 8.38% weekly [7][10]. - Market Outlook: Supply pressure persists in the near - term due to the inventory cycle of piglets and breeding sows and postponed slaughter plans. Retail farmers are actively selling due to losses and pessimism. Post - holiday demand declines, and slaughterhouse operations decrease. The short - term supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the pig price will oscillate weakly. Suggest short - side trading on the 2601 contract or reverse arbitrage on pig futures [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - Price Movement: The futures price fell, and the main contract 2511 dropped 8.38% weekly [7][10]. - Net Position and Warehouse Receipts: As of October 10, the net short position of the top 20 holders increased by 5388 lots to 33089 lots, and the number of futures warehouse receipts remained at 0, unchanged from before the holiday [16]. - Contract Spreads: The spread between lh2601 and lh2603 contracts was 180, and the spread between lh2601 and lh2605 contracts was - 385 [22]. 3.3 Spot Market - Basis: The basis of the November contract was - 320 yuan/ton, and the basis of the January contract was - 1140 yuan/ton [27]. - Pig and Piglet Prices: The national average pig price was 12.5 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan/kg from last week and 5.94% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 24.86 yuan/kg, down 0.52 yuan/kg from last week and 11.21% from last month [34]. - Pork and Breeding Sow Prices: The national average pork price on September 25 was 24.29 yuan/kg, down 0.22 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows last week was 32.50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [38]. - Pig - to - Grain Ratio: As of September 24, the pig - to - grain ratio was 5.68, down 0.13 from the previous week and below 6:1 [42]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Breeding Sow Inventory: In August 2025, the national breeding sow inventory was 40380000 heads, down 40000 heads month - on - month, up 0.05% year - on - year, and 103.5% of the normal level. Among the 208 sample enterprises, the inventory of 123 large - scale farms was 5056500 heads, down 0.83% month - on - month and up 1.86% year - on - year; the inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 173900 heads, down 0.09% month - on - month and up 5.92% year - on - year [47]. - Pig Inventory: In Q2 2023, the national pig inventory was 424470000 heads, up 7160000 heads from the previous quarter and 9140000 heads year - on - year. In August, the inventory of 123 large - scale farms was 3614500000 heads, up 1.11% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year; the inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms in July was 148820000 heads, up 2.49% month - on - month and 7.23% year - on - year [52]. - Pig Slaughter Volume and Average Weight: In August, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms was 1070350000 heads, up 2.56% month - on - month and 23.49% year - on - year; the slaughter volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms in July was 47370000 heads, down 1.44% month - on - month and up 54.30% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary pigs was 123.48 kg, up 0.01 kg from last week [57]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Breeding Profits: As of September 26, the loss of purchasing piglets for breeding was 236.57 yuan/head, an increase of 37.25 yuan/head; the loss of self - breeding and self - raising was 74.11 yuan/head, a decrease of 49.66 yuan/head. The profit of laying hens was 0.11 yuan/head, down 0.06 yuan/head week - on - week, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was 1.40 yuan/head [62]. - Pork Imports: From January to August 2025, the cumulative pork imports were 710000 tons, with a monthly average of 88750 tons. In August, the imports were 80000 tons, down 11.11% year - on - year [63][67]. - Substitute Products: As of September 26, the price of white - striped chickens was 14.4 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg from last week. As of October 9, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.59 yuan/kg, with the price difference of fat pigs expanding by 0.2 yuan/kg [70]. - Feed Situation: As of October 10, the spot price of soybean meal was 3013.71 yuan/ton, down 4.86 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2311.57 yuan/ton, down 57.06 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 877.43, down 0.99% from last week. The price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.34 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from last week. In August 2025, the monthly feed output was 2927200 tons, up 99900 tons month - on - month; the sales of piglet feed decreased by 0.04% month - on - month and 0.74% year - on - year [76][82][85]. - CPI: As of August 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year [89]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - Slaughterhouse Operations: In the 41st week, the slaughterhouse operation rate was 34.53%, down 1.24 percentage points from last week but higher than the same period last year. The domestic frozen - product storage rate was 17.75%, up 0.1 percentage points from last week [92]. - Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption: As of August 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughterhouses was 33500000 heads, up 5.81% month - on - month. In August 2025, the national catering revenue was 44957000000 yuan, up 2.1% year - on - year [97]. 3.7 Pig Stocks - The report presents the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [98][101]
生猪市场周报：基本面偏弱，生猪价格承压-20251010
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-10 09:05