沪锌市场周报：产量高位海外偏紧预计锌价企稳调整-20251010

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc rebounded from a low level, with a weekly increase of 2.04% and an amplitude of 2.59%. It is expected that zinc prices will stabilize and adjust. Macroscopically, there are differences in the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts. Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, the growth of zinc ore processing fees has slowed down, the profit space of smelters is large, and the production enthusiasm has increased. The output of refined zinc has reached a high level. However, the overseas zinc ore is tight, resulting in an expansion of import losses and a decrease in the inflow of imported zinc. The demand side is affected by the real - estate sector, but there are some bright spots in the automobile and home - appliance sectors. Technically, the short - selling atmosphere has weakened. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: This week, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc rebounded from a low level, with a weekly increase of 2.04% and an amplitude of 2.59%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 22,270 yuan/ton [5]. - Market Outlook: Macroscopically, there are differences in the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts. Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, the growth of zinc ore processing fees has slowed down, the profit space of smelters is large, and the production enthusiasm has increased. The output of refined zinc has reached a high level. However, the overseas zinc ore is tight, resulting in an expansion of import losses and a decrease in the inflow of imported zinc, and the export window is expected to open. The traditional peak season effect is dull, and the real - estate sector is a drag, while the automobile and home - appliance sectors have some bright spots. The domestic social inventory has increased, and the LME inventory has continued to decline. Technically, the short - selling atmosphere has weakened, and attention should be paid to the competition around MA60 [5]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price and Ratio: This week, the price of Shanghai Zinc futures rose, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased. As of October 10, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Zinc was 22,270 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan/ton or 1.02% from September 25, 2025. As of October 9, 2025, the closing price of London Zinc was 3,014 US dollars/ton, up 2.5 US dollars/ton or 0.08% from October 3, 2025 [8]. - Net Position and Total Position: As of October 10, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc was 65 lots, an increase of 8,155 lots from September 25, 2025. The total position of Shanghai Zinc was 215,372 lots, a decrease of 23,090 lots or 9.68% from September 25, 2025 [12]. - Price Spreads: As of October 10, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 1,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from September 25, 2025. The lead - zinc futures price spread was 5,130 yuan/ton, an increase of 175 yuan/ton from September 25, 2025 [16]. - Premium and Discount: As of October 10, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,340 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan/ton or 1.73% from September 25, 2025. The spot discount was 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week. As of October 9, 2025, the LME zinc near - month and 3 - month spread was 66.8 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8.62 US dollars/ton from October 2, 2025 [22]. - Inventory: As of October 10, 2025, the LME refined zinc inventory was 37,950 tons, a decrease of 1,850 tons or 4.65% from October 3, 2025. The Shanghai Futures Exchange refined zinc inventory was 106,950 tons, an increase of 8,940 tons or 9.12% from last week. As of October 9, 2025, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 136,100 tons, an increase of 800 tons or 0.59% from September 25, 2025 [25]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Upstream: In July 2025, the global zinc ore output was 1.0762 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.73% and a year - on - year increase of 10.28%. In August 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 467,301.43 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.51% and a year - on - year increase of 30.83% [31][32]. - Supply - side - Global: According to ILZSG data, in July 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1993 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 75,300 tons or 6.7%. The global refined zinc consumption was 1.1691 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10,100 tons or 0.87%. The global refined zinc surplus was 30,200 tons, compared with a deficit of 35,000 tons in the same period last year. According to WBMS, in June 2024, the global zinc market supply - demand balance was - 27,800 tons [37][38]. - Supply - side - Domestic: In August 2025, the zinc output was 651,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.8%. From January to August, the cumulative zinc output was 4.836 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. In August 2025, the refined zinc import volume was 25,656.83 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.59%, and the export volume was 310.91 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 84.57% [41][44]. - Downstream - Galvanized Sheets: From January to August 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of domestic major enterprises was 853,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.36%. In August 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 42,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.27%, and the export volume was 335,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.19% [47]. - Downstream - Real Estate: From January to August 2025, the new housing construction area was 398.0101 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.54%. The housing completion area was 276.9354 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.94%. The funds in place for real - estate development enterprises were 6.431803 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, personal mortgage loans were 885.679 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.5% [52][53]. - Downstream - Infrastructure: In August 2025, the real - estate development climate index was 93.05, a decrease of 0.28 from last month and an increase of 0.81 from the same period last year. From January to August 2025, the infrastructure investment increased by 5.42% year - on - year [58]. - Downstream - Home Appliances: In August 2025, the refrigerator output was 9.4532 million units, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. From January to August, the cumulative refrigerator output was 70.1891 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. The air - conditioner output was 16.8188 million units, a year - on - year increase of 12.3%. From January to August, the cumulative air - conditioner output was 199.6462 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.8% [61]. - Downstream - Automobiles: In August 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 2,856,590 units, a year - on - year increase of 16.44%. The production volume was 2,815,413 units, a year - on - year increase of 12.96% [65].