芳烃橡胶早报-20251013

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - For PTA, the start - up decreased slightly, polyester load increased month - on - month, inventory accumulated slightly, basis remained weak, and spot processing fees remained low. PX domestic start - up increased, overseas devices restarted, PXN widened month - on - month. TA may have additional reduction and production plans, but considering the lack of unexpected performance in polyester, the far - month is expected to accumulate inventory. After the valuation is repaired month - on - month, the far - month processing fee is relatively reasonable. Attention should be paid to additional maintenance situations [1] - For MEG, the near - end domestic oil - based start - up remained stable, coal - based restarted, the overall load rose to a high level, there was some maintenance overseas, port inventory accumulated significantly at the beginning of the next week due to increased arrival during the holiday and dull shipment. The basis strengthened slightly, and the benefit ratio further shrank. In the future, with the high - level start - up of existing devices and new device production, it will enter a continuous inventory accumulation stage, but there may be some negative feedback on the supply side after the coal - based benefit and ratio weaken. Attention should be paid to the support of coal - based cost below [1] - For polyester staple fiber, the near - end Fujian Shanli had maintenance, Zhejiang Huaxing increased load, the start - up decreased to 94.3%, production and sales weakened month - on - month, and inventory accumulated month - on - month. On the demand side, the start - up of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material stocking decreased, finished product inventory remained stable month - on - month, and the benefit was weak. In the future, the speed of increasing load may slow down due to the high - level finished product inventory of polyester yarn, but the start - up will remain high due to the good spot benefit of staple fiber, and the inventory pressure is limited. The processing fee is expected to fluctuate [1] - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable at an absolute level, the Thai stage price is stable, and there is rainfall. The strategy is to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Price and Index Changes: From September 26 to October 10, 2025, crude oil decreased by 2.5, PX CFR decreased by 7, PTA internal - market spot decreased by 11, PTA processing difference increased by 10.75, etc [1] - Device Changes: Hengli Dalian's 2.2 million - ton device had maintenance, and Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 million - ton device reduced load [1] - Market Situation: The average daily basis of PTA spot transactions was 2601 (- 65) [1] MEG - Price and Index Changes: From September 26 to October 10, 2025, MEG prices decreased, such as the price decreased by 20, the internal - market price decreased by 18, etc. The profit increased by 38.32, and the inventory increased by 4 [1] - Device Changes: Shanxi Meijin's 300,000 - ton device had maintenance [1] - Market Situation: The basis of MEG spot transactions was around 01 (+ 70) [1] Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Index Changes: From September 2 to October 1, 2025, the spot price decreased by 35, and the short - fiber profit increased by 20 [1] - Device Changes: Fujian Shanli had maintenance, and Zhejiang Huaxing increased load, and the start - up decreased to 94.3% [1] - Market Situation: The spot price was around 6376, and the market basis was around 11 + 50 [1] Natural Rubber - Price and Index Changes: From September 26 to October 10, 2025, prices such as Shanghai full - latex decreased by 100, and the Thai cup - rubber price decreased by 5 [1] - Market Situation: The main contradiction is that the national explicit inventory is stable at an absolute level, and the Thai stage price is stable [1] Styrene - Related Products - Price Changes: From September 26 to October 10, 2025, prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, etc. all had different degrees of decrease [1] - Profit Changes: The domestic profits of PS, ABS, EPS, etc. also changed, such as the PS domestic profit decreased by 36 [1]