PTA、MEG早报-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the post - holiday spot market negotiation atmosphere is average, and the spot basis has weakened slightly. Some PTA device maintenance and production reduction, along with the postponement of new device production, have improved the PTA supply - demand outlook. It is expected that the short - term spot price will still fluctuate mainly following the cost side. Attention should be paid to device changes and downstream production and sales [5]. - For MEG, the arrival at the main port this week is still relatively high, and it is expected that the port inventory will still increase at the beginning of next week. In October, the supply - demand pattern of MEG turns to inventory accumulation, with an overall accumulation of about 50,000 tons, and there is continuous inventory accumulation pressure in the far - month. The market sentiment is under significant pressure. It is expected that the MEG market will operate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to external factors and device changes [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No content related to the previous day's review is provided in the given text. 3.2 Daily Tips PTA - Fundamentals: On Friday, the mainstream transactions at the main port were around a discount of 65 to the 01 contract, with individual prices slightly lower. The price negotiation range was around 4,460 - 4,530. The mainstream spot basis today is at a discount of 65 to the 01 contract, showing a neutral situation [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4,450, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 49, indicating a premium on the futures market, which is neutral [5]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 4.22 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.47 days, which is bearish [5]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [5]. - Main Force Position: The net position of the main force is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [5]. MEG - Fundamentals: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol continued to weaken, and the negotiation in the market was average. During the night session, the ethylene glycol futures market opened slightly higher, with the high - level spot transactions reaching around 4,250 yuan/ton. Subsequently, the market continued to decline, and the overall sentiment in the market was weak. Traders mainly sold their goods, and the spot negotiation and transactions at the end of the session were around 4,160 - 4,165 yuan/ton. In terms of US dollars, the center of the external ethylene glycol market continued to weaken, and the negotiation of recent shipments fell back to around 490 - 492 US dollars/ton, with a small number of traders participating in inquiries. The negotiation ranges for domestic and foreign transactions are 4,162 - 4,250 yuan/ton and 490 - 495 US dollars/ton respectively, showing a neutral situation [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4,070, and the basis of the 01 contract is 90, indicating a discount on the futures market, which is neutral [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 445,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,800 tons, which is bearish [7]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [7]. - Main Force Position: The net position of the main force is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus No content related to today's focus is provided in the given text. 3.4 Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes of PTA over time [11]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, port inventory, and inventory changes from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes of ethylene glycol over time [12]. - Price - related Data: It includes the spot price of bottle chips, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, and various price spreads of PTA and MEG, such as TA - 5 spread, EG monthly spread, basis, and spot spread, which can help analyze the market trends and price relationships of PTA and MEG [14][24][31]. - Inventory - related Data: It includes the factory inventory of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and polyester fibers, as well as the inventory days of polyester products in Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, which can help understand the inventory status of the polyester industry chain [40][45]. - Operating Rate - related Data: It includes the operating rates of PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms in the polyester upstream and downstream, which can help analyze the production and operation status of the polyester industry chain [51][55]. - Profit - related Data: It includes the processing fees of PTA, production profits of MEG through different production methods, and production profits of polyester fibers, which can help analyze the profitability of the polyester industry chain [60][61].