大越期货螺卷早报-20251013

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - For rebar, with weak demand, rising inventory at a low level, low purchasing willingness of traders, and the downstream real - estate industry in a downward cycle, it should be treated with a bearish - biased trading range mindset [2]. - For hot - rolled coil, with weakening supply and demand, decreasing inventory, blocked exports, and potential domestic policy efforts, it should also be treated with a bearish - biased trading range mindset [7]. Summary by Related Catalog Rebar - Fundamentals: Demand is lackluster, inventory is rising from a low level, traders' purchasing willingness is low, and the downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle; bearish [2]. - Basis: The rebar spot price is 3230, and the basis is 127; bullish [2]. - Inventory: The inventory in 35 major cities nationwide is 4.673 million tons, increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year; neutral [2]. - Market: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; bearish [2]. - Main Position: The net position of rebar's main contract is short, and short positions are decreasing; bearish [2]. - Likely Factors: Low production, spot premium, and domestic production - cut expectations [4]. - Negative Factors: The downward cycle of the downstream real - estate industry continues, and terminal demand remains weak and lower than the same period [4]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamentals: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decrease, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may be implemented; neutral [7]. - Basis: The hot - rolled coil spot price is 3340, and the basis is 55; bullish [7]. - Inventory: The inventory in 33 major cities nationwide is 3.293 million tons, increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year; bearish [7]. - Market: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; bearish [7]. - Main Position: The net position of hot - rolled coil's main contract is short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [7]. - Likely Factors: Decent demand, spot premium, and domestic production - cut expectations [8]. - Negative Factors: Downstream demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the outlook is pessimistic [9].