大越期货沪铜早报-20251013

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply side of copper is disturbed with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being liberalized. In September, manufacturing production accelerated with the PMI rising to 49.8%, and the business climate continued to improve. The copper price is expected to remain strong due to inventory recovery, geopolitical disturbances, and the fermentation of the Grasberg Block Cave mine incident in Indonesia, despite the repeated US tariffs [2]. - The copper market in 2024 will have a slight surplus, while it will be in a tight balance in 2025 [20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: The supply side is disturbed, and the PMI in September shows an improved business climate. It is considered neutral [2]. - Basis: The spot price is 86,675 with a basis of 775, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - Inventory: On October 10, copper inventory decreased by 75 to 139,400 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 14,656 tons to 109,690 tons compared to last week. It is considered neutral [2]. - Market Trend: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is rising, which is bullish [2]. - Main Position: The main net position is long, and the long position is increasing, which is bullish [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Likely Influencing Factors: Global policy easing and the escalation of the trade war are the logical factors affecting the market, but specific bullish and bearish factors are not detailed [3]. Inventory - Exchange Inventory: The SHFE copper inventory increased by 14,656 tons to 109,690 tons compared to last week [2]. - Bonded Area Inventory: The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [16]. Supply - Demand Balance - Overall Situation: There will be a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [20]. - China's Annual Supply - Demand Balance: From 2018 - 2024, China's copper production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance are presented in the table. For example, in 2024, production is 12.06 million tons, import is 3.73 million tons, export is 0.46 million tons, apparent consumption is 15.34 million tons, actual consumption is 15.23 million tons, and the supply - demand balance is a surplus of 0.11 million tons [22].