沪镍、不锈钢早报-20251013

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 沪镍: The market showed a slight increase last week after the holiday, with spot transactions being acceptable. The long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged. It is recommended to adopt a wide - range oscillation strategy and try short - selling at high prices for the contract 沪镍2511 [2]. - 不锈钢: The spot price of stainless steel declined. The cost line is firm, and inventory has increased. The contract 不锈钢2512 is expected to run in a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Overview - 镍: On October 10, the price of 沪镍主力 was 122,180, down 2,300 from the previous day; the price of 伦镍电 was 15,215, down 270. The price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 123,850, up 250 [14]. - 不锈钢: On October 10, the price of 不锈钢主力 was 12,805, down 55 from the previous day. The price of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in Wuxi remained unchanged at 13,950 [14]. 3.2 Inventory - 镍: As of October 10, LME nickel inventory was 237,378, an increase of 486; Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 25,228, an increase of 453. The total inventory was 262,606, an increase of 939 [17]. - 不锈钢: On October 10, the Wuxi inventory was 615,400 tons, the Foshan inventory was 310,800 tons, and the national inventory was 1,053,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 77,700 tons. The stainless steel futures warehouse receipts were 86,254, a decrease of 297 [21][22]. 3.3 Cost - 镍: The import cost was estimated to be 122,564 yuan/ton [30]. - 不锈钢: The traditional production cost was 13,165 yuan/ton, the scrap steel production cost was 13,464 yuan/ton, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,955 yuan/ton [27]. 3.4 Market Factors - Likely to be Bullish: There are expectations of a Fed rate cut, anti - involution policies, and firm ore prices with a cost support at 120,000 [8]. - Likely to be Bearish: Domestic nickel production continues to rise significantly year - on - year, there is no new growth point in demand, and the long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged. The loading volume of ternary batteries is decreasing year - on - year [8].