焦煤焦炭早报（2025-10-13）-20251013

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - For Coking Coal: The supply of coking coal is constrained by safety inspections, and the market trading atmosphere has weakened. The price is expected to be weakly stable in the short - term due to factors such as slowed procurement by downstream enterprises and limited profit margins [2]. - For Coke: Coke's first - round price increase has been fully implemented, and the profit of coke enterprises has been repaired. It is expected to remain stable in the short - term, supported by high iron - water production and some replenishment demand [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Safety inspections in major coal - producing areas restrict production, and the price shows mixed trends. The market trading atmosphere has weakened as downstream enterprises are cautious about high - priced coal [2]. - Basis: The spot price is 1285, and the basis is 124, indicating that the spot is at a premium to the futures [2]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 1890.7 tons, a decrease of 28.1 tons from last week, including 805.8 tons in steel mills, 255.5 tons in ports, and 829.4 tons in independent coke enterprises [2]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [2]. - Main Position: The main position of coking coal is net long, with long positions decreasing [2]. - Expectation: After the first - round price increase of coke during the holiday, the profit of coke enterprises has slightly improved. However, after pre - holiday inventory replenishment, the procurement of raw coal by coke enterprises has slowed down. The price is expected to be weakly stable in the short - term [2]. Coke - Fundamentals: The first - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented, and the profit of coke enterprises has been repaired, supporting a stable operating rate. The inventory in factories is at a low level [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 1580, and the basis is - 86.5, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [6]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 864.2 tons, a decrease of 17.9 tons from last week, including 609.8 tons in steel mills, 215.1 tons in ports, and 39.3 tons in independent coke enterprises [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [6]. - Main Position: The main position of coke is net short, with short positions decreasing [6]. - Expectation: The profit of coke enterprises is still meager, and some have production - reduction expectations. However, considering the inventory consumption after the holiday and high iron - water production, the price is expected to remain stable in the short - term [5]. Price - Coking Coal: The prices of imported coking coal from Russia and Australia are provided, with some prices showing increases or decreases [10]. - Coke: The prices of port metallurgical coke are provided, with some prices showing decreases [9]. Inventory - Port Inventory: The coking coal port inventory is 282.1 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons from last week; the coke port inventory is 215.1 tons, an increase of 17 tons from last week [20]. - Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory: The coking coal inventory of independent coke enterprises is 844.1 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons from last week; the coke inventory is 46.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons from last week [25]. - Steel Mill Inventory: The coking coal inventory of steel mills is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; the coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [30]. Other Data - Coke Oven Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises is 74.48% [43]. - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 25 yuan [47].