甲醇聚烯烃早报-20251013

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current trading logic is that port pressure is transmitted to the inland. The inland has seasonal stocking demand and incremental stocking from new Lianhong units in the later stage, but the port will continuously cause reverse flow impacts. The current price in the futures market is benchmarked against the inland price, and the inland's actions are crucial later. Xingxing is expected to resume operation in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. Reverse flow can relieve port pressure but will affect the inland valuation. Currently, the valuation and inventory are average, and the driving force is weak. It is still necessary to wait before bottom - fishing (import variables include India's purchase of Iranian products, unplanned maintenance, etc.) [2][3] - For polyethylene, the inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. The upstream two major oil companies and coal chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, and the social inventory remains flat. The downstream raw material and finished product inventories are also neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The basis for the 09 contract is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, and other price differentials are fluctuating, with LD weakening. The maintenance in September is flat month - on - month, and the recent domestic linear production has decreased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion situation and the US quotation. The pressure from new plants in 2025 is significant, and the commissioning of new plants should be monitored [3] - For polypropylene, the upstream two major oil companies and the middle - stream are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price differential is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price differential is neutral, and the markets in Europe and America are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The拉丝 production ratio is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The current downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Against the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase significantly or there are many PDH plant maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [3] - For PVC, the basis is maintained at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. The inventory of the middle and upstream is continuously accumulating. The summer seasonal maintenance of northwest plants has a load center between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the implementation of new plant commissioning and the sustainability of exports. The recent near - term export orders have slightly declined. The coal market sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance; the counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support the high price of caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol and Polyolefins - The report provides price data for methanol and polyolefins on different dates including power coal futures, spot prices in different regions, CFR prices, import profits, basis, and MTO profits [2] Polyethylene - Price data for Northeast Asia ethylene, LL and LD in different regions, import profits, futures prices, basis, two - oil inventories, and warehouse receipts are provided from September 26 to October 10, 2025 [3] Polypropylene - Price data for Shandong propylene, Northeast Asia propylene, PP in different regions, PP in US dollars, export profits, futures prices, basis, two - oil inventories, and warehouse receipts are provided from September 26 to October 10, 2025 [3] PVC - Price data for northwest calcium carbide, Shandong caustic soda, different production methods of PVC in different regions, import prices, export profits, comprehensive profits, and basis are provided from September 26 to October 10, 2025 [3]