大越期货纯碱早报-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The macro situation is bearish, and the fundamentals of soda ash are weak. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Fundamentals: Sino-US trade frictions may intensify; the maintenance volume of soda ash plants is lower than expected, and the second phase of Yuangxing is expected to be put into production before the end of the year. The overall supply is at a high level. The supply of downstream float glass is highly volatile, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high for the same period, which is bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Shahe, Hebei is 1,150 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,240 yuan/ton, and the basis is -90 yuan. The futures price is higher than the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.6598 million tons, an increase of 0.50% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5-year average, which is bearish [2]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position increases, which is bearish [2]. - Expectation: The macro situation is bearish, and the fundamentals of soda ash are weak. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors Summary - Bullish Factors: During the peak maintenance period this year, the production is expected to decline [3]. - Bearish Factors: The main logic is that the supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level for the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved. The risk points are that the cold repair of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is lower than expected, and the macro利好 is higher than expected [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1,240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.80% from the previous value. The low-end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.29% from the previous value. The main basis is -90 yuan, an increase of 5.88% from the previous value [6]. 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe market in Hebei is 1,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Production Profit: The profit of heavy soda ash by the ammonia-alkali method in North China is -89.25 yuan/ton, and the profit by the co-production method in East China is -114.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [14]. - Operating Rate and Production Capacity: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 88.41%. The weekly production of soda ash is 770,800 tons, including 428,700 tons of heavy soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [17][19]. - Production Capacity Changes: From 2023 to 2025, there has been a significant expansion of soda ash production capacity, with large-scale production plans each year. The total planned production capacity in 2023 is 6.4 million tons, 1.8 million tons in 2024, and 7.5 million tons in 2025, with an actual production of 1 million tons [21]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Production and Sales Rate: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 92.23% [24]. - Downstream Demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 161,300 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 76.01%. The demand for soda ash from the downstream photovoltaic glass has weakened [27][5]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.6598 million tons, an increase of 0.50% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5-year average [34]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - The supply and demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows that the production capacity, production, import, export, and other data of soda ash have changed over the years, and the supply and demand gap also varies [35].