沪锌期货早报-20251013

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report Core View - The previous trading day saw Shanghai Zinc fluctuate and decline, closing with a negative line, with increased trading volume. Both long and short positions reduced, with more short - position reduction. Overall, it was a volume - contracting decline. As prices fell, long - position holders exited actively, and short - position holders exited even more actively. In the short term, the market may fluctuate weakly. Technically, the price closed above the long - term moving average, with strong moving - average support. The short - term indicator KDJ rose and operated in the strong area; the trend indicator declined, with the long - position strength rising and the short - position strength falling, and the dominance of short - position strength narrowing. The operation suggestion is that Shanghai Zinc ZN2511 will fluctuate weakly [19]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In July 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1515 million tons, consumption was 1.1629 million tons, with a supply shortage of 11,300 tons. From January to July, global zinc plate production was 7.9452 million tons, consumption was 8.1585 million tons, with a supply shortage of 213,300 tons. In July, global zinc ore production was 1.0656 million tons, and from January to July, it was 7.3437 million tons, showing a bullish sign [2]. 2. Basis Analysis - The spot price was 22,350, and the basis was + 80, showing a neutral situation [2]. 3. Inventory Analysis - On October 10, LME zinc inventory decreased by 300 tons to 37,950 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 1,777 tons to 60,644 tons compared to the previous day, showing a neutral situation [2]. 4. Market Trend Analysis - The previous day, Shanghai Zinc fluctuated and declined, closing above the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average rising, showing a bullish sign [2]. 5. Main Position Analysis - The main position was net short, and the short position decreased, showing a bearish sign [2]. 6. Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Market on October 10 - The trading volume of zinc futures contracts on that day totaled 281,454 lots, with a total trading value of 3.15265218 billion yuan. The open interest was 215,372 lots, a decrease of 5,828 lots compared to the previous day [3]. 7. Domestic Main Spot Market on October 10 - The price of zinc concentrate was 17,420 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of zinc ingots was 22,350 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized sheets was 4,000 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized pipes was 4,407 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton; the price of zinc alloy was 22,850 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton; the price of zinc powder was 27,610 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide was 20,700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the price of secondary zinc oxide was 7,790 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton [4]. 8. National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (2025/9/22 - 2025/10/9) - On October 9, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets was 1.362 million tons. Compared with September 25, it increased by 7,000 tons; compared with September 29, it increased by 73,000 tons [5]. 9. Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on October 10 - The total zinc warrants on that day were 60,644 tons, an increase of 1,777 tons compared to the previous day [6]. 10. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on October 10 - The LME zinc inventory on that day was 37,950 tons, a decrease of 300 tons compared to the previous day [7]. 11. National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price on October 10 - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters all increased by 160 yuan/ton [12]. 12. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - The planned production value in June was 459,700 tons, and the actual production was 471,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The production was 2.63% higher than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.10%. The planned production in July was 470,300 tons [14]. 13. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Market on October 10 - The processing fees of zinc concentrates in different regions varied, with the import processing fee for 48% zinc concentrate being 105 US dollars per dry ton [16]. 14. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Transaction and Position Ranking on October 10 - For the contract code zn2511, the total trading volume of members was 284,573 lots, an increase of 76,994 lots compared to the previous day. The total long - position volume was 73,034 lots, a decrease of 3,740 lots, and the total short - position volume was 71,273 lots, a decrease of 4,868 lots [17].