大越期货沪铜周报-20251013
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-10-13 01:58

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Shanghai Copper Weekly Report (10.9 - 10.10)" [1] - Author: Zhu Senlin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] - Contact: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - Last week, Shanghai copper prices rose significantly, with the main contract up 3.37% to 85,910 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors, US tariffs, Indonesian copper mine force majeure, and the rise of precious metals stimulated the price increase. Domestically, consumption is entering the peak season, but downstream consumption willingness is average. The domestic spot market is mainly for rigid - demand transactions. LME copper inventory decreased slightly, while SHFE copper inventory increased by 14,656 tons to 109,690 tons [4] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The main Shanghai copper contract rose 3.37% last week, closing at 85,910 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors, US tariffs, Indonesian copper mine force majeure, and the rise of precious metals drove the price up. Downstream consumption willingness is average, and the spot market is mainly for rigid - demand transactions. LME copper inventory decreased slightly, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 14,656 tons to 109,690 tons [4] 2. Fundamental Analysis - PMI: No specific content provided - Supply - Demand Balance: In 2024, there is a tight supply - demand balance, and in 2025, there will be an oversupply. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 - 2024 [12][15] - Inventory: Exchange inventory is being destocked, and bonded area inventory remains at a low level [16][19] 3. Market Structure - Processing Fee: Processing fees are at a low level [22] - CFTC Position: Non - commercial net long positions in CFTC are flowing out [24] - Futures - Spot Price Difference: No specific content provided - Import Profit: No specific content provided - Warehouse Receipt: No specific content provided