棉花早报-20251013

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market is generally bearish. The expected supply increase due to the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, combined with a weak market performance during the peak season and the resurgence of Trump's tariff - increasing remarks, leads to an expectation of further decline in the main 01 contract. It is recommended to short on rallies [4]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the report 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Multiple institutions' forecasts show a complex supply - demand situation for cotton. For example, the ICAC9 monthly report indicates 2550 million tons of production and consumption in the 25/26 season; the USDA9 monthly report shows 2562.2 million tons of production and 2587.2 million tons of consumption. China's textile and clothing exports in August decreased by 5% year - on - year, and cotton imports decreased by 51.6% year - on - year, while棉纱 imports increased by 18.18% year - on - year. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14757, with a basis of 1432 (01 contract), showing a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The expected ending inventory in the 25/26 season in October by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture is 822 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The net short position is increasing, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is half over, the market is sluggish. With new cotton about to be listed in large quantities, supply is expected to increase. Trump's tariff - increasing remarks have resurfaced, and US cotton continues to decline. The rebound of the main 01 contract is weak, with an expectation of further decline [4]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the report 4. Fundamental Data - USDA Global Production and Sales Forecast (September): Global cotton production is expected to be 2562.2 million tons, and consumption is expected to be 2587.2 million tons. Different countries have different trends in production, consumption, imports, and exports. For example, China's production is expected to be 707.6 million tons, and consumption is expected to be 838.2 million tons [9]. - ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In the 25/26 season, global production is 2.590 million tons, consumption is 2.560 million tons, ending inventory is 1.710 million tons, and global trade volume is 970 million tons. The price forecast for the Cotlook A index is 57 - 94 cents per pound [11]. - Ministry of Agriculture Data: In the 25/26 season, China's production is 636 million tons, imports are 140 million tons, consumption is 740 million tons, and ending inventory is 822 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 14000 - 16000 yuan per ton [13]. 5. Position Data - The main position of cotton is bearish, with an increase in net short positions [4].