白糖早报-20251013

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Multiple institutions have different predictions for the global sugar supply and demand situation in the 2025/26 season, with a general trend towards a shift from balance to surplus [8][35]. - The technical rebound of Zhengzhou sugar that started before the holiday was temporarily blocked, the upward momentum weakened, and the price oscillated and weakened again. The 01 contract is expected to run weakly in the range of 5530 - 5450 [5][8]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Hints - Fundamentals: Czarnikow raised the global sugar surplus forecast for the 25/26 season to 740 million tons, 120 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicted a global sugar market surplus of 277 million tons in the 25/26 season. ISO estimated a global sugar supply gap of 23.1 million tons in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 billion tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 10 billion tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 60,000 tons; the total import of sugar syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 155,700 tons. This is bearish [5]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5870, and the basis is 374 (for the 01 contract), with a premium over futures, which is bullish [5]. - Inventory: As of the end of August, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar - making season was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [5]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is near the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral [5]. - Main Position: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is bearish, which is bearish [5]. - Expectation: The night - trading price of foreign sugar fell below the 16 - cent per pound mark again. The technical rebound of Zhengzhou sugar that started before the holiday was temporarily blocked, the upward momentum weakened, and the price oscillated and weakened again. The 01 contract is expected to run weakly in the range of 5530 - 5450 [5][8]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand Forecasts by Institutions: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 season. For example, ISO predicts a supply gap narrowing to 20 million tons, StoneX predicts a supply surplus of 277 million tons, Czarnikow predicts a supply surplus of 620 - 750 million tons, Datagro predicts a supply surplus of 153 million tons, Covrig Analytics predicts a supply surplus of 420 million tons, Alvean/Louis Dreyfus predicts a supply surplus of 40 million tons, and Green Pool predicts a supply surplus of 115 million tons [35]. - China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet: The sugarcane planting area, sugar production, import, consumption, and price ranges for different seasons (2024/25, 2023/24, 2025/26) are provided. For example, in the 2025/26 season, the sugar production is expected to be 11.2 billion tons, the import is 5 billion tons, and the consumption is 15.9 billion tons [37]. - Import Data: In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons; the total import of sugar syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 155,700 tons [5][8]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.