建信期货铝日报-20251013

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai Aluminum contract showed a pattern of rising and then falling. The main contract reached a high of 21,200, then dropped to 20,980 at the end of the session, a 0.12% decline from the previous day. The 10 - 11 spread turned to flat, and the import window closed. The spot import loss widened to around - 2,400 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate strongly, but be cautious about chasing high prices due to the short - term suppression of downstream consumption by high prices [9] - The supply of northern bauxite is tight with relatively strong prices, while other regions remain stable. The resumption of some mines in Guinea puts pressure on imported bauxite prices. Alumina prices are falling, hovering around 2,850. The fundamentals are significantly oversupplied. Attention should be paid to the possible production cuts and maintenance of high - cost enterprises due to price drops [9] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of Shanghai Aluminum and is expected to oscillate strongly during the traditional peak season. In October, the domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains unchanged at a high level, and the Indonesian aluminum plant has been successfully put into operation, slightly increasing the overall supply. Demand is in the peak season. Although the actual performance of the terminal is poor, with the loose overseas liquidity and the increasing expectation of domestic stimulus policies, the aluminum price is expected to oscillate strongly [9] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract reached a high of 21,200 and then dropped to 20,980 at the end of the session, a 0.12% decline from the previous day. The 10 - 11 spread turned to flat, and the import window closed. The spot import loss widened to around - 2,400 yuan/ton [9] - Fundamentals: Northern bauxite supply is tight, and the resumption of some mines in Guinea affects imported bauxite prices. Alumina prices are falling due to oversupply. Cast aluminum alloy is in the peak season and is expected to oscillate strongly. The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high, and the Indonesian plant's operation increases supply. Demand is in the peak season, and the aluminum price is expected to oscillate strongly, but be cautious about chasing high prices [9] Group 5: Industry News - A cooperation agreement on the management, operation, and maintenance of the mining road on the Darbilon Line was signed on October 3, 2025. Six mining companies in the Boké administrative region participated. The agreement allows the sharing of dedicated roads for mineral transportation, reducing production costs and environmental and social risks, and is expected to increase bauxite mining by over 50 million tons [10][11] - Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) is preparing for a potential IPO, with an estimated valuation of $10 - 15 billion. The IPO is expected to be one of the largest in the Middle East. Dubai and Abu Dhabi are competing for the listing location. EGA has overcome challenges such as US tariffs and plans to invest $4 billion in a smelter in Oklahoma [11] - The Japan Aluminum Can Recycling Association reported that the demand for aluminum cans in Japan in 2025 was about 2.091 billion, remaining the same as the previous year and staying at the 2 - billion - can level for 10 consecutive years [11]