大越期货菜粕早报-20251013

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 will fluctuate in the range of 2360 - 2420. The market will return to a volatile state, awaiting the final result of the anti-dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and the low inventory supports the market, but after the National Day, the demand will gradually enter the off - season, and the Sino - Canadian trade negotiation is still uncertain. The market will be affected by news in the short term and maintain a volatile state [9]. - The rapeseed meal futures declined with a shock, while the spot price remained relatively stable, and the spot premium slightly expanded. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated at a low level [18][20]. - The import volume of rapeseed in October remained stable, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills continued to decline, and the weekly inventory of rapeseed meal remained flat. The crushing volume of rapeseed in oil mills remained at a low level [23][25][27]. - The price of aquatic fish slightly rebounded, while the price of shrimps and shellfish remained stable [35]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Hints - The rapeseed meal RM2601 will fluctuate in the range of 2360 - 2420. The market is affected by factors such as the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations, and is expected to maintain a volatile state in the short term [9]. 2. Recent News - The domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market expectation. Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvesting stage, but the Sino - Canadian trade issue affects the short - term export and reduces the domestic supply expectation [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports was established, and an import deposit of 75.8% was imposed. If the final ruling is established, the deposit will be levied as additional tariffs and will not be refunded, but the final result is still uncertain [11]. - The global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially the production in Canada is higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is still ongoing. The decrease in rapeseed production in Ukraine and the increase in Russia's production offset each other. The global geopolitical conflict may still rise in the future, which supports bulk commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the imposition of import deposits; the inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills is not large [12]. - Bearish factors: The domestic demand for rapeseed meal is gradually entering the off - season; the final result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Sino - Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - Price difference data: From September 24 to October 10, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated. For example, on September 24, the average price difference was 468, and on October 10, it was 465 [13]. - Futures and spot price data: From September 24 to October 10, the rapeseed meal futures prices (including the main 2601 and far - month 2605 contracts) and the spot price (in Fujian) fluctuated. For example, on September 24, the main 2601 contract was 2395, and the spot price was 2500 [15]. - Warehouse receipt data: From September 22 to October 10, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts changed. For example, on September 22, there were 9248 warehouse receipts, and on September 30, there were 9199 (- 46 compared with the previous day) [17]. 5. Position Data - The main short positions increased, and the funds flowed in, showing a bearish signal [9].