大越期货甲醇早报-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic methanol market shows regional differences. The inland market has declined significantly, while the port market has shown a slight firmness. The short - term domestic market is expected to have a narrow - range adjustment. - It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with MA2601 oscillating between 2270 - 2360 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: The inland methanol market has declined due to sufficient post - holiday enterprise inventories and port imports flowing back to the inland. The port market is driven by sanctions news and a late - session futures rally, with the basis strengthening. The short - term domestic market is expected to have a narrow - range adjustment [5]. - Basis: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2260 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 47, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [5]. - Inventory: As of October 9, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 127.30 million tons, with a 0.49 - million - ton increase from before the holiday. The overall available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has increased by 5.99 million tons to 94.05 million tons [5]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average [5]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position has increased [5]. - Expectation: The methanol price is expected to oscillate this week, with MA2601 running between 2270 - 2360 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - Positive Factors: Some devices are shut down (e.g., Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinya); the methanol production in Iran has decreased, and the port inventory is at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen has produced products, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production this month [6]. - Negative Factors: Some previously shut - down devices have resumed operation (e.g., Inner Mongolia Donghua); there is a concentrated arrival of ships at the port in the second half of the month; the formaldehyde industry has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has dropped significantly; coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling; some factories in the production area have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Price Data: In the spot market, prices in different regions show various changes. For example, the price in Jiangsu has decreased by 0.76% week - on - week, while prices in Shandong, Hebei, etc. have remained unchanged. In the futures market, the closing price has increased by 17 yuan/ton. In terms of spreads, the basis, import spread, etc. have also changed [8][9]. - Operating Rate: The weighted average national operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The operating rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, etc. have also changed to varying degrees [8]. - Inventory: The inventory in East China ports has decreased by 1.60 million tons, while the inventory in South China ports has increased by 2.09 million tons [8]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - Domestic Devices: Many domestic methanol production enterprises are in the process of maintenance or have experienced production suspension. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. have shut down or reduced production for different reasons and durations [61]. - Overseas Devices: Some overseas methanol production devices, especially those in Iran, are in the process of restarting or have unstable operations. For example, ZPC in Iran is reported to have resumed one set of equipment, but it needs to be verified [62]. - Olefin Devices: Some olefin production devices with supporting methanol production also have different operating conditions. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin devices have been shut down for maintenance since March 15, and it is expected to last for 45 days [63].