大越期货PVC期货早报-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the PVC industry is bearish [10][11]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC has increased this week, and it is expected to increase slightly in production scheduling next week as maintenance is expected to decrease. The overall inventory is at a high level, while the current demand is close to the historical average. The cost of both calcium carbide method and ethylene method has strengthened, and the PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4704 - 4766. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the sluggish recovery of domestic demand [8][9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply Side: In September 2025, PVC production was 2.030766 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.05%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 82.63%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The output of calcium carbide enterprises was 352,720 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.70%, and that of ethylene enterprises was 150,840 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.06%. Supply pressure increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase slightly next week [8]. - Demand Side: The overall downstream operating rate was 39.21%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.55 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Different downstream sectors showed mixed trends, with the film and paste resin operating rates being higher than the historical average, while the profiles and pipes operating rates were lower. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are advantageous. Current demand is close to the historical average [9]. - Cost Side: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 622.11 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month reduction in losses of 19.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 538.3646 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month reduction in losses of 3.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2,345.05 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 2.60%, lower than the historical average, which may put pressure on production scheduling [9]. - Base Difference: On October 10, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 35 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [12]. - Inventory: Factory inventory was 383,574 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.04%. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 300,274 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.96%. Ethylene factory inventory was 83,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.11%. Social inventory was 557,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.58%. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 6.3 days, a month - on - month increase of 18.86% [12]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions [10]. - Expectation: The cost of both calcium carbide and ethylene methods has strengthened. Supply pressure has increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase next week. Overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand is close to the historical average. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends [10]. 3.2 PVC Futures Market - Price and Volume Trends: The report presents the price trends of PVC futures contracts such as the opening price, highest price, lowest price, and closing price, as well as trading volume and open interest trends, including the net position changes of the top 5 and top 20 seats [24]. - Basis Trends: It shows the historical basis trends of PVC futures, reflecting the relationship between spot and futures prices [20]. - Spread Analysis: Analyzes the spread trends of the main PVC futures contracts, such as the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread from 2024 to 2025 [26]. 3.3 PVC Fundamental Analysis - Calcium Carbide Method - Related: - Lancoke: It shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily output trends of Lancoke from 2016 to 2025 [30]. - Calcium Carbide: Presents the price, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production trends of calcium carbide from 2018 to 2025 [33]. - Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt: Displays the price, production trends of liquid chlorine from 2020 to 2025, and the price and monthly production trends of raw salt from 2019 to 2025 [35]. - Caustic Soda: Shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, weekly production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, double - ton spread, and inventory trends of caustic soda from 2019 to 2025 [37][39]. - PVC Supply Trends: - Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rates of calcium carbide and ethylene methods from 2018 to 2025 are presented, along with the profit trends of the two methods [41][42]. - Production and Inventory: Displays the daily production, weekly maintenance volume, weekly capacity utilization rate, and weekly production of PVC from 2020 to 2025 [43][44]. - Demand Trends: - Downstream Consumption: Presents the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream average operating rate of PVC from 2019 to 2025 [46][48]. - Downstream Industry Operating Rates: Shows the operating rates of PVC profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin from 2019 to 2025 [50]. - Paste Resin: Displays the gross profit, cost, monthly production, and apparent consumption of paste resin from 2019 to 2025 [51]. - Real Estate and Infrastructure: Presents the real estate investment completion amount, housing construction area, new housing construction area, commercial housing sales area, housing completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) year - on - year trends from 2018 to 2025 [54][55][58]. - Inventory: It shows the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 to 2025 [60]. - Ethylene Method: Presents the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of the ethylene method, and vinyl chloride import spread from 2018 to 2025 [62]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Displays the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data of PVC from August 2024 to September 2025 [65].