大越期货沥青期货早报-20251013

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt remains high, but refineries have recently reduced production to alleviate supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. Inventory remains stable, and the weakening of crude oil prices will lead to a short - term weakening of cost support. It is expected that the asphalt futures market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating in the range of 3306 - 3350 [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. The relatively high - level of crude oil cost provides some support, but there is insufficient demand for high - priced goods, and the overall demand is declining with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply Side: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 37.0326%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments were 221,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29.38%. The sample enterprise output was 618,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.98%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 625,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.96%. Refineries have reduced production, which will reduce supply pressure next week [8]. - Demand Side: The开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 34.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points; the开工 rate of construction asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the开工 rate of modified asphalt was 18.9356%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.29 percentage points; the开工 rate of road - modified asphalt was 29%, unchanged from the previous month; the开工 rate of waterproofing membranes was 30%, unchanged from the previous month. All are below the historical average levels, indicating that the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - Cost Side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 345.85 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 882.4386 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 12.29%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - Comprehensive Judgment: The fundamentals are bearish; the basis is bullish as the spot price is at a premium to the futures price; inventory is neutral with social inventory decreasing, factory inventory increasing, and port inventory decreasing; the disk is bearish as the MA20 is downward and the 11 - contract futures price is below the MA20; the main position is bullish as the main position is net long but the long position is decreasing. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating in the range of 3306 - 3350 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The prices of various asphalt contracts, such as the 01 - 12 contracts, showed different degrees of decline compared to the previous values. For example, the 01 - contract price decreased by 57 yuan to 3248 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.72%. In terms of inventory, social inventory decreased by 1.31% to 1058,000 tons, factory inventory increased by 6.48% to 690,000 tons, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreased by 7.69% to 120,000 tons [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of asphalt basis in Shandong and East China from 2020 - 2025, which helps investors understand the price relationship between the spot and futures markets [17][18]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main - Contract Spread: The report shows the historical trends of the spreads between the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 - 2025, which is important for spread trading strategies [20][21]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: It presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 - 2025, helping to analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [23][24]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: The report shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 - 2025, which is useful for analyzing the refining profit margins [26][27][28]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: It presents the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 - 2025, providing insights into the relative value of these commodities [30][32]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025, which helps to understand the price dynamics in the spot market [33][34]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: - Asphalt Profit: It shows the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which is important for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [35][36]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: It presents the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 - 2025, which is useful for refineries to make production decisions [38][39][40]. - Supply - Side Analysis: - Shipment Volume: The report shows the historical shipment volume of small - sample asphalt enterprises from 2020 - 2025, which reflects the supply situation in the market [41][42]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: It presents the historical inventory of domestic diluted asphalt ports from 2021 - 2025, which is an important indicator of the supply of raw materials [43][44]. - Production Volume: It shows the historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which helps to understand the overall supply capacity [46][47]. - Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend: It presents the historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 - 2025, which is related to the raw material supply of asphalt [50][52]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Production: It shows the historical production volume of local refinery asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which reflects the production contribution of local refineries [53][54]. - 开工 Rate: The report shows the historical weekly 开工 rate of asphalt from 2021 - 2025, which is an important indicator of the production activity level [56][57]. - Maintenance Loss Estimation: It presents the historical trend of estimated maintenance losses from 2018 - 2025, which helps to understand the impact of refinery maintenance on supply [59][60]. - Inventory Analysis: - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 - 2025, which is related to the delivery and storage of futures contracts [62][63][64]. - Social Inventory and Factory Inventory: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 - sample) and factory inventory (54 - sample) from 2022 - 2025, which reflects the overall inventory situation in the market [66][67]. - Factory Inventory - Inventory Ratio: It presents the historical trend of the factory inventory - inventory ratio from 2018 - 2025, which helps to analyze the inventory management efficiency of factories [69][70]. - Import and Export Situation: - It shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 - 2025, as well as the historical trend of the import price difference of South Korean asphalt from 2020 - 2025, which is important for analyzing the international trade situation of asphalt [72][73][76]. - Demand - Side Analysis: - Petroleum Coke Production: It shows the historical production volume of petroleum coke from 2019 - 2025, which is related to the demand for asphalt in some industries [78][79]. - Apparent Consumption: The report shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which reflects the overall market demand [81][82]. - Downstream Demand: It presents the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 - 2025, as well as the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the domestic sales volume of excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2019 - 2025, which helps to analyze the downstream demand for asphalt [84][85][86][88][89][90][91][92]. - Asphalt 开工 Rate: The report shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt 开工 rate, asphalt 开工 rate by use, and downstream 开工 situation (shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt 开工 rate, road - modified asphalt 开工 rate, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt 开工 rate) from 2019 - 2025, which reflects the production activity level of the asphalt industry [93][94][96][97][98][100]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 - September 2025, including downstream demand, diluted asphalt port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume, which helps to comprehensively analyze the supply - demand relationship in the asphalt market [102][103].