原油成品油早报-20251013

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices declined as the first - stage cease - fire agreement in the Gaza region was reached, and the geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East was reversed. Trump reignited the trade war, worsening the macro - sentiment, causing Brent crude to fall to $62 per barrel with a daily decline of over 4%. Fundamentally, crude oil supply continued to be released, with OPEC confirming a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in November and a market expectation of a further increase in December. Global floating crude oil storage increased significantly. The EIA reported a commercial crude inventory build in the US. Global refinery profits declined with the fall in diesel cracking. The Dangote refinery in West Africa is expected to resume next week, restoring global gasoline supply. Considering the sanctions on Iran and the impact on refinery raw material supply, the fourth - quarter refinery start - up expectations are slightly lowered. Overall, there will be an oversupply of over 2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter and 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. The absolute price center in the fourth quarter is expected to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oil Price Data - From September 26 to October 10, WTI decreased by $2.61, BRENT by $2.49, and DUBAI by $1.68. SC decreased by 9.10, and OMAN by $2.75. Domestic gasoline increased by 20.00, and domestic diesel decreased by 35.00. Japanese naphtha decreased by 7.50, and Singapore fuel oil 380CST had a slight change. HH natural gas increased by 0.130, and BFO decreased by $1.33 [3] 2. Daily News - The UK media reported that the US has been assisting Ukraine in attacking Russian energy facilities, with no responses from the US, Russia, or Ukraine. The Iranian foreign minister doubts the US's ability to fulfill its commitments. A Hamas official said the group is ready to give up the governance of the Gaza Strip. There is a cease - fire agreement in Gaza. The US Treasury Secretary said India will adjust its energy structure towards US oil, and the US Treasury has sanctioned over 50 entities related to Iranian oil [3][4] 3. Regional Fundamentals - The EIA report shows that in the week of October 3, US crude exports decreased by 161,000 barrels per day, domestic production increased by 124,000 barrels per day, commercial crude inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.715 million barrels (0.89% increase), and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 285,000 barrels (0.07% increase). The four - week average supply of US crude products increased by 1.68% year - on - year. From September 12 - 18, the main refinery operating rate fluctuated slightly, and the Shandong local refinery operating rate increased slightly. Domestic gasoline and diesel production and inventory both increased [4] 4. Weekly Viewpoints - Oil prices dropped this week due to the cease - fire in the Gaza region and a worsening macro - environment. Crude oil supply is increasing, and global floating storage has risen. The EIA reported a commercial crude inventory build in the US. Global refinery profits are falling. The Dangote refinery in West Africa is expected to resume next week. The sanctions on Iran may affect refinery raw material supply, and the fourth - quarter refinery start - up expectations are slightly lowered. There will be an oversupply in the fourth quarter and 2026, and the fourth - quarter price center is expected to decline [5]