大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20251013

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The lithium carbonate market shows a situation of supply exceeding demand, with high supply and relatively weak demand. The price of lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,700 - 73,780. The cost of lithium compounds is generally high, and most production methods are in a loss - making state. The supply of lithium resources is expected to increase in the future, while the demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily View - Supply - side: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,635 tons, a 0.58% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In September 2025, the production was 87,260 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 89,890 tons, a 3.01% month - on - month increase. The import volume in September was 20,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 22,000 tons, a 10.00% month - on - month increase [8][9]. - Demand - side: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 101,848 tons, a 3.62% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,849 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week decrease. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - Cost - side: The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate is 74,071 yuan/ton, a 0.55% day - on - day decrease, with a loss of 1,590 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica is 77,139 yuan/ton, a 0.85% day - on - day decrease, with a loss of 6,648 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - Lithium Carbonate Market: The prices of most lithium carbonate futures contracts decreased, and the basis of most contracts increased. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 0.68% [15]. - Supply - side Data: The weekly and monthly production and import volume of lithium carbonate generally increased. The production of lithium ore, including spodumene, lithium mica, and salt lake lithium, also showed different trends of change. The import volume of lithium concentrate decreased, while the import volume of lithium carbonate increased [17]. - Demand - side Data: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles increased, and the penetration rate also increased slightly. The production, sales, and export volume of lithium batteries also showed an upward trend. The demand for ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and other products also changed to varying degrees [18][53]. - Inventory Data: The total weekly inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.48%. The inventory of smelters increased by 3.75%, the downstream inventory decreased by 1.85%, and other inventories decreased by 5.07% [17].