大越期货PVC期货周报-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 01 contract showed a downward trend. The opening price on Monday was 4,930 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 4,735 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 3.95%. It is expected that the market will have a narrow - range adjustment next week [5]. - Supply pressure increased this week, and it is expected that maintenance will decrease next week with a slight increase in production scheduling. Demand is close to the historical average level, and overall inventory is at a high level [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The 01 contract declined this week, with a weekly decline of 3.95%. The opening price on Monday was 4,930 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 4,735 yuan/ton [5]. - Supply Side: In September 2025, PVC production was 2.030766 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.05%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 82.63%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 352,720 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.70%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 150,840 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.06%. It is expected that maintenance will decrease next week with a slight increase in production scheduling [5]. - Demand Side: The overall downstream operating rate was 39.21%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.55 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 15.87%, a month - on - month decrease of 23.0 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 32.83%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.6 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 68.93%, a month - on - month increase of 0.00 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 77.88%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.03 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand is close to the historical average [5]. - Cost and Profit: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 622.11 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 19.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 538.3646 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 3.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2,345.05 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 2.60%, lower than the historical average, and production scheduling may be under pressure [6]. - Inventory: Factory inventory was 383,574 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.04%. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 300,274 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.96%. Ethylene factory inventory was 83,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.11%. Social inventory was 557,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.58%. The in - stock inventory days of production enterprises were 6.3 days, a month - on - month increase of 18.86%. Overall inventory is at a high level [6]. 3.2 PVC Futures Market - Price and Volume: The main 01 contract showed a downward trend this week. The report provides price trends such as opening, high, low, and closing prices, as well as trading volume data from September 1 to October 10, 2025 [13]. - Basis and Spread: The report presents basis trends from 2022 - 2025 and spread trends between different contracts in 2024 - 2025 [10][16]. 3.3 PVC Fundamental Analysis - Calcium Carbide Method - Related: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, and inventory of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda, as well as the cost - profit and double - ton spread of the chlor - alkali industry [19][22][24][26][29]. - Supply Trend: It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily output, and maintenance volume of calcium carbide and ethylene methods from 2018 - 2025 [31][33]. - Demand Trend: It includes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, sales - production ratio, apparent consumption, downstream operating rate, and related real - estate and macro - economic data [36][37][40][45][48]. - Inventory Situation: It presents the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide and ethylene factory inventories, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 - 2025 [50]. - Ethylene Method - Related: It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads from 2020 - 2025 [52]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the monthly supply - demand situation of PVC from August 2024 to September 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [55]. 3.4 Technical Analysis - The main 01 contract showed a downward trend this week, and it is expected to have a narrow - range adjustment next week. The report also provides price trends and moving average data from September 1 to October 10, 2025 [59][60].